2016 Presidential Race

Post by **Shirley** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:01 am

howard wrote:Hillary is still the most likely person to become the 45th president of the US (unless someoene takes out Barry in the next year.) It is shocking how low that probability is.

Here is one thing I am confident we will see in the next inning. A loss in South Carolina could be devastating. The Dem primary in SC rests on the black vote. She has exactly two ways to appeal to the black vote. In reverse order:

#2 My husband was the first Black president. You know him, you love him, so vote for me

#1 Tapping into the powerful strain of antisemitism in the dark hearts of Black people.

Bernie's Jewieness is gonna be as prominent in the SC campaign as they think they can get away with. Desperate times. Of course she won't say it, but it will be said, loudly and unmistakably. And it might work. You watch.

And Hillary can break out her southern accent again.

Rush2112 · Post by **Rush2112** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:50 am

tennbengal wrote:The next ten states or so play to trump's strengths generally AND the retail politic'ing states are pretty much over. Trump has inside track now.

He has to win 45% of the vote in order to pick up the necessary delegates. I'm not sure he's going to pick up the votes that leave the more moderate candidates, they'll most likely move to whomever is left. He may win the most delegates, but I'm not sure he'll when what he needs to avoid a brokered convention.

Pruitt · Post by **Pruitt** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 7:02 am

DaveInSeattle wrote:We now live in a world in which Donald Trump (!!!!!?!!?!?!?!) has won a Presidential Primary.

Shocking and horrifying for sure, but I think the Rubicon was crossed when Huckabee won one.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:17 am

Rush2112 wrote:
tennbengal wrote:The next ten states or so play to trump's strengths generally AND the retail politic'ing states are pretty much over. Trump has inside track now.
He has to win 45% of the vote in order to pick up the necessary delegates. I'm not sure he's going to pick up the votes that leave the more moderate candidates, they'll most likely move to whomever is left. He may win the most delegates, but I'm not sure he'll when what he needs to avoid a brokered convention.

I didn't say inevitable.

I said inside track.

Brontoburglar · Post by **Brontoburglar** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 10:58 am

Rush2112 wrote:Interesting thing about the races in NH, Clinton received a 1,000 more votes than the Donald and Senator Sanders has him by more than 25,000 votes.

In a tossup state that no on really cares about (it's all Colorado and Ohio) but still interesting to ponder.

What's the reasoning behind that being interesting?

And before you get defensive, I'd ask that of anyone who made the comment.

In the final voting, Trump got 96K+. Hillary got 91K+.

33K more votes were cast in the GOP primary than in the Democratic one. The reason the vote totals are similar to the numbers you put above is because 10 GOP candidates got more than 1,000 votes while 3 Dems got more than 1,000. It's simply a candidate numbers game.

(Fun fact, Bobby Jindal got 50 votes)

rass · Post by **rass** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 11:08 am

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 11:14 am

Oh, rass. That was good.

DaveInSeattle · Post by **DaveInSeattle** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 11:26 am

The South Carolina primary has always been a hallmark of nastiness and dirty tricks. The next two weeks (especially on the Republican side) are going to make everything that's gone before look like a day at the beach.

Rush2112 · Post by **Rush2112** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 11:45 am

Brontoburglar wrote:
What's the reasoning behind that being interesting?

And before you get defensive, I'd ask that of anyone who made the comment.

In the final voting, Trump got 96K+. Hillary got 91K+.

33K more votes were cast in the GOP primary than in the Democratic one. The reason the vote totals are similar to the numbers you put above is because 10 GOP candidates got more than 1,000 votes while 3 Dems got more than 1,000. It's simply a candidate numbers game.

(Fun fact, Bobby Jindal got 50 votes)

When I saw numbers Santatorum had 48!

It was interesting because New Hampshire has been a toss-up state the last few elections. Trump has been advertised as some juggernaut while Sanders is unelectable. In a state that has had presidential elections decided by some slim margins, I found it interesting that "unelectable" candidate was blowing the doors off the guy with the "inside track."

Post by **brian** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 11:46 am

Rush2112 wrote:
Brontoburglar wrote:
What's the reasoning behind that being interesting?

And before you get defensive, I'd ask that of anyone who made the comment.

In the final voting, Trump got 96K+. Hillary got 91K+.

33K more votes were cast in the GOP primary than in the Democratic one. The reason the vote totals are similar to the numbers you put above is because 10 GOP candidates got more than 1,000 votes while 3 Dems got more than 1,000. It's simply a candidate numbers game.

(Fun fact, Bobby Jindal got 50 votes)
When I saw numbers Santatorum had 48!

It was interesting because New Hampshire has been a toss-up state the last few elections. Trump has been advertised as some juggernaut while Sanders is unelectable. In a state that has had presidential elections decided by some slim margins, I found it interesting that "unelectable" candidate was blowing the doors off the guy with the "inside track."

But they weren't even in the same election. It's like trying to compare an NBA team with an NHL team. It's pointless.

Rush2112 · Post by **Rush2112** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 11:49 am

brian wrote:
But they weren't even in the same election. It's like trying to compare an NBA team with an NHL team. It's pointless.

Perhaps to you, I said I found it interesting. If you don't just fucking move on rather than having to issue your .02$

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 11:58 am

Rush, "the Bernie is unelectable" narrative may be wrong, but it isn't all that surprising that a Vermont senator crushed the opposition in New Hampshire, is it?

I'll be interested in how he does in South Carolina. To echo some thoughts said hereabouts previously, it seems that a Brooklyn-accented, Jewish, union-friendly, self-described socialist might get pounded at the polls in a state that might be unfriendly to all those things. If he stays close, then Hillary may be in for a real battle.

Rush2112 · Post by **Rush2112** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:09 pm

sancarlos wrote:Rush, "the Bernie is unelectable" narrative may be wrong, but it isn't all that surprising that a Vermont senator crushed the opposition in New Hampshire, is it?

I'll be interested in how he does in South Carolina. To echo some thoughts said hereabouts previously, it seems that a Brooklyn-accented, Jewish, union-friendly, self-described socialist might get pounded at the polls in a state that might be unfriendly to all those things. If he stays close, then Hillary may be in for a real battle.

Vermont and New Hampshire are not as similar as one would believe. But don't take my word for it, there was an article discussing it in the NYT earlier this week.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:11 pm

Well, this looks civil:

And holy fuck this is amazing:

Pruitt · Post by **Pruitt** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:51 pm

That Triumph piece is genius.

howard · Post by **howard** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:59 pm

Smeigel just cracks me up. Triumph hasn't gotten stale after all this time.

Sancarlos retweeted this:

The Sybian · Post by **The Sybian** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 1:10 pm

Yet another gem from my favorite spokesperson. Trump "single-handedly brought back free speech." Holy fucking hell, this woman is dumb. And yet Trump is the lead candidate, so maybe hiring complete imbeciles as your spokesperson is the key to winning. But seriously? The 1st Amendment protects our right from having to watch what we say to keep campaign donors happy? Wow, Donald has saved all of us from the burden of trying not to say stupid shit on the campaign trail.

ETA: I am so sick of this whole misuse of Free Speech. Nobody ever stopped any of these wingnuts from speaking their minds. Nobody is being thrown off TV or radio by the government or being arrested or fined for speaking out against the government. If you say something stupid, racist, bigoted, or factually incorrect, the 1st Amendment doesn't protect you from being called an idiot, racist bigot or being corrected. And no, you can't have an opinion on a verifiable fact.

Pruitt · Post by **Pruitt** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 1:25 pm

howard wrote:Smeigel just cracks me up. Triumph hasn't gotten stale after all this time.

Hulu doesn't stream in Canada - anyone know where else I can catch the full special?

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 1:54 pm

America.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 2:48 pm

I will go to my grave believing that if Christie had never pivoted right and just stayed the loud asshole semi-centrist he once was, he'd be at or near the lead right now versus already out.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 2:49 pm

mister d wrote:I will go to my grave believing that if Christie had never pivoted right and just stayed the loud asshole semi-centrist he once was, he'd be at or near the lead right now versus already out.

And, if the bridge fiasco had never occurred.

howard · Post by **howard** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 2:51 pm

Old. dudes. fucking. rule.

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 2:53 pm

howard wrote:Old. dudes. fucking. rule.

I'll bet he even called bank on each shot.

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 2:54 pm

I know Kasich spent a ridiculous amount of time in NH, but still... He's definitely the least odious of the remaining GOPers. A respectable finish last night at least keeps some hope alive... Though I'm pretty sure Trump's brand of idiocy is going to destroy in SC.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 2:55 pm

sancarlos wrote:
mister d wrote:I will go to my grave believing that if Christie had never pivoted right and just stayed the loud asshole semi-centrist he once was, he'd be at or near the lead right now versus already out.
And, if the bridge fiasco had never occurred.

That was post-turn. Not that he wasn't the type of shithead to do that anyway, but freeze him in 2012 and thaw him out now and he's in it.

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 2:56 pm

mister d wrote:I will go to my grave believing that if Christie had never pivoted right and just stayed the loud asshole semi-centrist he once was, he'd be at or near the lead right now versus already out.

Nah, all you have do to is show the (many) pictures of him touring Jersey with Obama post-Sandy and he's done... Even with some of the reasonable moderates, that is a kiss of death.

God forbid you show that you can put aside partisan bullshit from time to time.

ETA - Left out an important detail.

Ryan · Post by **Ryan** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 2:56 pm

govmentchedda wrote:I'll bet he even called bank on each shot.

!

howard · Post by **howard** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 2:56 pm

Rush2112 · Post by **Rush2112** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 2:57 pm

howard wrote:Old. dudes. fucking. rule.

He was a on Borough championship team (in elementary school.)

Good friend of mine's dad is about Bernie's age, grew up in Brooklyn. Love hearing his old basketball stories, guys he played against, etc. Yes, he can still hit the 10 footer.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 2:58 pm

howard wrote:

More time to fuck over teachers and watch our transit system shut down.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 3:01 pm

Rush2112 wrote:
howard wrote:Old. dudes. fucking. rule.

He was a on Borough championship team (in elementary school.)

Good friend of mine's dad is about Bernie's age, grew up in Brooklyn. Love hearing his old basketball stories, guys he played against, etc. Yes, he can still hit the 10 footer.

They were still playing with peach baskets as goals, then, right?

Rush2112 · Post by **Rush2112** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 3:22 pm

sancarlos wrote: They were still playing with peach baskets as goals, then, right?

Of course, before they thought to remove the bottom even!

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 3:26 pm

Donald Trump is the Spencer Spratt of politics.

DaveInSeattle · Post by **DaveInSeattle** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 5:14 pm

Nonlinear FC wrote:Donald Trump is the Spencer Spratt of politics.

Should I know who that is?

DaveInSeattle · Post by **DaveInSeattle** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 5:14 pm

howard wrote:Old. dudes. fucking. rule.

Tim Duncan is saying "Hey! That's my move!"

Pruitt · Post by **Pruitt** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 5:30 pm

The Funny or Die Trump movie with Johnny Depp is funny for 10 minutes or so.

Sadly, it's 50 minutes long.

Rush2112 · Post by **Rush2112** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 6:23 pm

Rush2112 · Post by **Rush2112** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 10:24 pm

sancarlos wrote:it isn't all that surprising that a Vermont senator crushed the opposition in New Hampshire, is it?

Bernie speaking in New Hampshire June 2015.

HDO45331 · Post by **HDO45331** » Thu Feb 11, 2016 1:50 am

Nonlinear FC wrote:I know Kasich spent a ridiculous amount of time in NH, but still... He's definitely the least odious of the remaining GOPers. A respectable finish last night at least keeps some hope alive... Though I'm pretty sure Trump's brand of idiocy is going to destroy in SC.

A wolf in sheep's clothing.

He is on the Koch Bros payroll. He has done his best to break all public unions.

He gave the business owners a 75% deduction towards Ohio taxes, which means a factory worker making $50,000 pays more taxes than a person with Schedule C, E, or F income (or has K-1 Sub S or Partnership income) who has $150,000 in income. He has paid for this by cutting out the exemption credits, raising real estate taxes, and increasing the sales tax rate.

This is the guy who, after getting booted from congress in the (I believe) 90s, went to work for Lehman Brothers in Ohio. He pressured the Ohio Public Employee Retirement System to purchase $50,000,000 In Lehman Brothers stock, which turned out to be worthless.

I hate him.

Ryan · Post by **Ryan** » Thu Feb 11, 2016 7:48 am

HDO45331 wrote:
A wolf in sheep's clothing.

He is on the Koch Bros payroll. He has done his best to break all public unions.

He gave the business owners a 75% deduction towards Ohio taxes, which means a factory worker making $50,000 pays more taxes than a person with Schedule C, E, or F income (or has K-1 Sub S or Partnership income) who has $150,000 in income. He has paid for this by cutting out the exemption credits, raising real estate taxes, and increasing the sales tax rate.

This is the guy who, after getting booted from congress in the (I believe) 90s, went to work for Lehman Brothers in Ohio. He pressured the Ohio Public Employee Retirement System to purchase $50,000,000 In Lehman Brothers stock, which turned out to be worthless.

I hate him.

Nonlinear FC wrote:but still... He's definitely the least odious of the remaining GOPers.