The OFFICIAL 2022 NFL Offseason Thread

Brontoburglar · Post by **Brontoburglar** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 3:46 pm

relevant!

pruitt2 · Post by **pruitt2** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 4:34 pm

Gotta say, I'm an analytics skeptic, but was I ever wrong about teams going for it on 4th and short.

Should punters' pay be cut?

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 4:55 pm

Wait 'til y'all get a load of punt god.

pruitt2 · Post by **pruitt2** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 5:22 pm

Goodell: Commanders’ Daniel Snyder won’t oversee day-to-day operations for ‘foreseeable future’

His replacement?

Someone named Tanya Snyder.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 6:21 pm

I was just going to post that shortly we’ll see some hot takes bitching about nerds and analytics from “durr durr real football men”. And you guys put up the evidence before I could

rass · Post by **rass** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 8:11 pm

Rough day for Bruce careers.

The Sybian · Post by **The Sybian** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 9:09 pm

rass wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 8:11 pm Rough day for Bruce careers.

Quick, bubble wrap Springsteen!

Brontoburglar · Post by **Brontoburglar** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 10:00 pm

pruitt2 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 4:34 pm Gotta say, I'm an analytics skeptic, but was I ever wrong about teams going for it on 4th and short.

Should punters' pay be cut?

how do you define an analytics skeptic? resistant to change? distrust of statistics and conclusions from data? both? something else?

I ask because I'm genuinely curious given the catch-all the word analytics now means (and therefore it has different meanings to different people)

The Sybian · Post by **The Sybian** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 10:47 pm

Brontoburglar wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 10:00 pm
pruitt2 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 4:34 pm Gotta say, I'm an analytics skeptic, but was I ever wrong about teams going for it on 4th and short.

Should punters' pay be cut?
how do you define an analytics skeptic? resistant to change? distrust of statistics and conclusions from data? both? something else?

I ask because I'm genuinely curious given the catch-all the word analytics now means (and therefore it has different meanings to different people)

Pruitt hates facts and science.

pruitt2 · Post by **pruitt2** » Thu Mar 31, 2022 6:39 am

Brontoburglar wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 10:00 pm
pruitt2 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 4:34 pm Gotta say, I'm an analytics skeptic, but was I ever wrong about teams going for it on 4th and short.

Should punters' pay be cut?
how do you define an analytics skeptic? resistant to change? distrust of statistics and conclusions from data? both? something else?

I ask because I'm genuinely curious given the catch-all the word analytics now means (and therefore it has different meanings to different people)

Just some of the stats that are used (referring to broadcasts) seem contrived. The ones that use complex formulations to get numbers. Things like DVOA seem kind of silly.

But certainly analyzing stats is crucial to running teams - I just think a lot of them are unnecessary.

EdRomero · Post by **EdRomero** » Thu Mar 31, 2022 8:43 am

I think the twitter stat guys are way behind the baseball stat guys in the amount of relevant information they have, but they still have the FJM and the we are 100% right and that coach who just punted is an idiot tone. Coaches have way more information and their decisions to punt can be based on matchups, in-game injuries, and other stuff, which I don't think stats people may have. There just seems to be many more factors on why not to punt versus why not to bunt with no outs that is tougher to measure.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Thu Mar 31, 2022 8:51 am

So they're at the CORSI IS EVERYTHING stage of hockey analytics?

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Fri Apr 01, 2022 10:23 am

Oh yea. Believe nothing you read today.

HaulCitgo · Post by **HaulCitgo** » Sat Apr 02, 2022 3:15 pm

I like parker. Wideouts good enough. Backs good enough. Qb good enough. OL good enough? Patricia looks like an OL coach so benefit of experience. Defense good enough? Belichick will find a way. Special teams though. Cant they block the punt? Joking sorry of. I like it. Slow burn. Backwoods. Phillies 93'. Optimo no more. Natural leaf vrwrapper. Wouldn't know. On the white drugs now. Cartridge that is. Not the fentanyl. Nevermind me.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Mon Apr 04, 2022 3:25 pm

Don't get this from the Saints perspective. That first next year could end up in the top 10. And getting an extra first this year doesn't mean much right now when you have no idea what the draft board will look like. Only way this makes sense for the Saints is if they are going to use this years two firsts to move up for one of the QBs like Willis.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Mon Apr 04, 2022 3:35 pm

I think you make that move to NOT be in the top 10 next year, but I agree it's a dubious proposition at best.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Mon Apr 04, 2022 3:51 pm

At some point I want someone to explain to me why time-value is applied to draft picks.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Mon Apr 04, 2022 4:01 pm

mister d wrote: ↑Mon Apr 04, 2022 3:51 pm At some point I want someone to explain to me why time-value is applied to draft picks.

Same. Wasn't there a point matrix devised by Bill Parcells or someone that compares relative value of picks or something in the most generic way possible?

And my guess about time-value seems to be borrowed from the concept that "a dollar is worth the most right now" and therefore "the future" is inherently less.

I'm probably deadass wrong about that, but maybe having the leverage of a team playing to "win now" has its benefits? No idea about that either though.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Mon Apr 04, 2022 4:13 pm

What percentage discount rate shall we apply to calculate the present value of future draft picks?

Hint: it is similar to the relationship between Schrute Bucks and Stanley Nickels.

DSafetyGuy · Post by **DSafetyGuy** » Mon Apr 04, 2022 4:43 pm

A_B wrote: ↑Mon Apr 04, 2022 3:35 pm I think you make that move to NOT be in the top 10 next year, but I agree it's a dubious proposition at best.

There has been some speculation on Twitter that the move is more to take advantage of a couple strengths in the draft to shore up OT and WR this year to try to keep things from bottoming out. They lost Terron Armstead this offseason and no one knows what's going to happen with Michael Thomas.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Mon Apr 04, 2022 5:21 pm

Johnnie wrote: ↑Mon Apr 04, 2022 4:01 pmAnd my guess about time-value seems to be borrowed from the concept that "a dollar is worth the most right now" and therefore "the future" is inherently less.

Right, and for money that makes sense. Getting $1,000 now is better than getting $1,000 a year from now. But with draft picks, it doesn't make sense to me except from a general manager-centric point of view. Prospect analysis aside, the #10 pick now is the exact same as the #10 pick next year unless you care more about 2022-26 than you do 2023-27 and I wouldn't think fan passion would be factored into a value analysis. There's a case to trade next years 1 + 2 for this year's 1 during the draft when you have a player you love, but trading a 1 + 2 for a 1 now should be seen as dumb unless the reasoning is that you're getting a #15 overall for a next year #24 + #54 (or whatever works out to > value).

Basically, the Saints likely made a really, really awful trade essentially giving up a 1 + 2 + 3 for a present 1.

rass · Post by **rass** » Sat Apr 09, 2022 10:37 am

24. Horrible

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Sat Apr 09, 2022 11:48 am

Way too young.

Johnny Carwash · Post by **Johnny Carwash** » Sat Apr 09, 2022 12:25 pm

I remember he endorsed the idea of the Washington team being named the Red Tails, which is way better that what they went with. RIP.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Sat Apr 09, 2022 1:15 pm

Sucks. Apparently hit by a dump truck after he ran out of gas on 595.

HaulCitgo · Post by **HaulCitgo** » Sat Apr 09, 2022 1:45 pm

Seems like theres a bunch of car safety stuff they never teach you. See people doing crazy shit on the side of the road (6 lane highway) all the time. Not saying he was even wrong but almost regardless he had a bunch of choices along that path any one of which would have saved his life. They should teach people that stuff.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Wed Apr 13, 2022 12:12 pm

This story is so wild and for whatever reason just isn't getting buzz.

A secret plan, a bombshell lawsuit, and a soccer match: Inside Tom Brady’s un-retirement

It's paywalled, so here you go:

[+] spoiler: On Feb. 1, Tom Brady announced that he was stepping away from football. The Buccaneers moved ahead with Bruce Arians as head coach and assessed their options at quarterback.

By March 30, Brady was back with the Bucs, preparing to play his 23rd NFL season at age 45. And his head coach was Todd Bowles after Arians retired and took a consulting job with the team.

How did this drastic turn of events take place in just two months? This wasn’t a Brett Favre situation, with Brady walking away for several months before getting the itch again during training camp. Brady was “retired” for all of 40 days, and came back in time for the Buccaneers to be active in free agency.

Instead, Brady’s change of heart was the result of a fascinating fall of dominos involving the Miami Dolphins, Sean Payton, Brian Flores’s lawsuit, former Patriots offensive lineman Rich Ohrnberger, and a Manchester United soccer match.

If Brady had his way, he would have been running — and potentially quarterbacking — one of the Patriots’ division rivals. Instead, a series of unforeseen events led him back to Tampa.

No one from Brady’s camp has acknowledged this timeline of events. But it’s fairly easy to connect the dots. A league source close to one of the parties provided knowledge of the inner dynamics of the situation. Reporting from Ohrnberger, now a San Diego radio host, and Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio filled in some of the gaps.

Here’s how it all unfolded:

▪ Brady decided to walk away from the Buccaneers for two reasons. One, per Ohrnberger, was his relationship with Arians. Ohrnberger is former teammates and close friends with a member of the Tampa Bay coaching staff, A.Q. Shipley.

“The retirement announcement wasn’t because of the trouble seeing eye to eye on the offensive game planning, but the relationship was souring,” Ohrnberger wrote on Twitter. “Offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich and Brady would work on the week’s game plan. Arians would later come in and take the red pen to work they’d done. The QB and OC felt undermined, there was tension.”

The other, and more significant, reason was that Dolphins owner Stephen Ross presented Brady with a golden opportunity to get into the business of the NFL. Per the league source, Brady was going to be given a position high in the Miami front office, similar to Derek Jeter’s former position with the Miami Marlins. Florio reported Thursday that the Dolphins were going to introduce Brady as a minority owner the week before the Super Bowl.

Brady has two big connections to the Dolphins. One is the University of Michigan; Brady is its star alumnus, and Ross has his name on its business school. The other is Dolphins minority owner Bruce Beal, who is Brady’s friend and has joined Brady on at least one trip to the Kentucky Derby.

Ross badly wanted Brady — in part to bring sizzle to the Dolphins, in part to stick it to the Patriots. For Brady, it was an opportunity to get into the business side of the NFL, with the goal of one day fronting his own ownership group.

▪ This doesn’t mean Brady was done playing football. After all, he just finished second in MVP voting and led the NFL in passing yards and touchdown passes.

The Dolphins’ offer was just Brady’s way of getting out of Tampa. He was under contract with the Buccaneers as a player, but they couldn’t stop him from becoming an executive. Once Brady was in Miami, and once the Buccaneers had found a replacement at quarterback, the Dolphins could have approached the Bucs about trade compensation to let Brady come out of retirement and play quarterback.

“I thought he was possibly going to take a year off, or something like that, and maybe come back after that,” Rob Gronkowski said Wednesday night on “Jimmy Kimmel Live.”

▪ Payton, the former Saints coach who resigned Jan. 25, also was going to be involved, as first reported by Florio Feb. 28. Brady and Payton have had a relationship over 20 years in the NFL, and they share an agent in Don Yee. Brady was close to joining the Saints in 2020 before Drew Brees decided to return for another year.

Per the league source, if Brady was going to run the Dolphins, he was going to do it only with a veteran coach that he trusted, such as Payton. Payton acknowledged when he resigned from the Saints that he intended to coach again soon.

▪ On the morning of Feb. 1, Brady announced his retirement — except that he never actually used that word. He said he was “not going to make that competitive commitment anymore.” His choice of words was deliberate.

Just hours later, on Feb. 1, Flores filed his lawsuit against the Dolphins and the NFL alleging racial discrimination, as well as making explosive allegations against Ross of trying to lose games intentionally and of tampering with a certain star quarterback.

The lawsuit messed up everything, per the source. The plan to hire a white coach and a white team president without going through the Rooney Rule probably wouldn’t fly once the Dolphins were sued for racial discrimination.

Flores’s accusations of tanking and tampering put the issue of cellphones and discovery at play for Ross and Brady. The lawsuit simply brought too much heat to the situation, and Ross and Brady had to call off the arrangement.

▪ With his plans with the Dolphins blown up, Brady was left with two choices: stay retired without knowing what he was going to do with his life or return to football.

The decision was obvious. But Brady had to clear up some issues in Tampa first.

On March 12, he traveled to the United Kingdom to take in a Manchester United soccer match. Man U is owned by the Glazer family, which also owns the Buccaneers. On March 13, Brady announced that he was coming back to the Buccaneers. His announcement came three days before the start of free agency, allowing the Bucs to use Brady as a recruiting tool.

The final chapter was written March 30, when the Buccaneers announced that Arians was stepping down as head coach and giving way to Bowles, who was the team’s defensive coordinator. Every other Bucs coach remained in place, including Leftwich, who essentially will be the head coach on the offensive side of the ball.

It’s not certain what exactly Brady and the Glazers spoke about at the soccer match. But it doesn’t take a genius to put 2 + 2 together.

▪ Actually, there is still one last piece of unresolved business: Brady’s contract. He is on the books for $10.4 million, plus $4.5 million in incentives. The Buccaneers surely will give him a raise. But if there are no extra years tacked on, then the Brady-to-Miami (or San Francisco) rumors will heat up again in 2023. If Brady gets extra years, then we can safely assume that the Glazer family doesn’t want him to play in any other uniform.

Either way, Brady will be back with the Bucs in 2022, gunning for an eighth Super Bowl ring and becoming the first QB in NFL history to start a game at age 45.

It wasn’t his original plan, but it’s a nice fallback. Buccaneers fans can thank Flores’s lawsuit and a soccer match across the pond for making it all happen.

To think, all of this undone because Bill Belichick messed up his contact info.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Sun Apr 24, 2022 2:34 pm

Lolz.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Sat Apr 30, 2022 6:12 pm

Don't be playing, OBJ!

pruitt2 · Post by **pruitt2** » Sat Apr 30, 2022 7:02 pm

Johnnie wrote: ↑Sat Apr 30, 2022 6:12 pm Don't be playing, OBJ!

Fuck that shit!

That does not make this Bills fan happy at all.

EnochRoot · Post by **EnochRoot** » Mon May 02, 2022 3:43 pm

Deandre Hopkins failed a PED test and will miss the first six games next season.

I'm guessing this was a 'known' when Arizona orchestrated that trade for Marquise Brown out of Baltimore last week.

rass · Post by **rass** » Wed May 04, 2022 11:26 am

Chance for Tom to maybe go see his hero in person.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Sat May 07, 2022 10:24 pm

Tom 1860 · Post by **Tom 1860** » Sun May 08, 2022 9:38 am

rass wrote: ↑Wed May 04, 2022 11:26 am Chance for Tom to maybe go see his hero in person.

I quite like Russell Wilson, old horse face can fuck off though...

DSafetyGuy · Post by **DSafetyGuy** » Wed May 11, 2022 6:39 pm

As time passes on, I think about the GM/coach hiring process.

And if Hyundai has asked for a refund.

pruitt2 · Post by **pruitt2** » Thu May 12, 2022 5:27 am

DSafetyGuy wrote: ↑Wed May 11, 2022 6:39 pm As time passes on, I think about the GM/coach hiring process.

And if Hyundai has asked for a refund.

Peterman may be one of those (always white) guys who spend a decade or more in the league holding a clipboard. One of those guys who when you see him you think "is he still around?"

ETA: Just revisited his stats. How is he in the NFL?

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Thu May 12, 2022 7:09 am

I think he's a calming presence in the locker room. That way, your young starter doesn't have to be constantly looking over his shoulder and worrying about being pulled randomly. Really lifts a weight in a young player's development. Worked for Josh Allen. Derek Carr had his two largest yardage seasons with peterman there.

DSafetyGuy · Post by **DSafetyGuy** » Thu May 12, 2022 8:18 am

pruitt2 · Post by **pruitt2** » Thu May 12, 2022 10:09 am

Only one QB in NFL history with more than 1,000 attempts has completed 2/3rds of his passes and won 2/3rds of his games.

[+] spoiler: Jimmy Garoppolo

rass · Post by **rass** » Thu May 12, 2022 9:08 pm