2015 NHL Offseason

SportsDoc · Post by **SportsDoc** » Mon Jun 08, 2015 11:07 am

So, Phil Kessel on the trading block.

Who wants a 30 goal scorer who still has managed to be a minus player for 8 of his 9 NHL seasons, including a -34 this season? He also has a cap hit of $8M for the next 7 years. Any takers?

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Mon Jun 08, 2015 11:09 am

SportsDoc wrote:So, Phil Kessel on the trading block.

Who wants a 30 goal scorer who still has managed to be a minus player for 8 of his 9 NHL seasons, including a -34 this season? He also has a cap hit of $8M for the next 7 years. Any takers?

What a shock that Babcock would be interested in having Kessel gone. I'm shocked. Shocked, I say, shocked!

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Mon Jun 08, 2015 6:37 pm

I don't take any numbers of any Toronto players literally. Just a complete clusterfuck up there.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Mon Jun 08, 2015 6:43 pm

While Kessel has a talented scorer's touch, he also has always been a lazy floater who plays hard only when he feels like it, and rarely feels like playing defense. An all-star that nobody else wants.

MaxWebster · Post by **MaxWebster** » Tue Jun 09, 2015 12:16 am

i should probably know this, having followed college hockey a bunch in the past (...although i could give a shit about NCAA rules etc), but this just occurred to me:

how is Jack Eichel and/or BU not violating NCAA rules when he goes to the Scouting Combine in Buffalo (as well as every other NCAA prospect)? and then he is flown to Chicago with the other top eventual draftees for TV interviews and feting etcetcetc?

I'm sure the answer is that he's "paying his own way" and definitely not being treated to wings.

but seriously what's the official ruling here? am i missing the point (again)?

Post by **brian** » Tue Jun 09, 2015 9:08 am

MaxWebster wrote:i should probably know this, having followed college hockey a bunch in the past (...although i could give a shit about NCAA rules etc), but this just occurred to me:

how is Jack Eichel and/or BU not violating NCAA rules when he goes to the Scouting Combine in Buffalo (as well as every other NCAA prospect)? and then he is flown to Chicago with the other top eventual draftees for TV interviews and feting etcetcetc?

I'm sure the answer is that he's "paying his own way" and definitely not being treated to wings.

but seriously what's the official ruling here? am i missing the point (again)?

If Eichel doesn't sign does he retain NCAA eligibility? Otherwise I don't see how it's any different than the NFL Combine or players being flown to meet with NFL teams, etc.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Jun 09, 2015 9:31 am

Its more that the NBA and NFL are complete fuckheads to college players. This is the same as baseball; a junior or soph-eligible can go through the process and get picked without losing eligibility.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Jun 09, 2015 9:33 am

Also, when I saw you were the one who posted here, I expected it would be whining about Detroit picking a top assistant coach rather than someone with zero pro experience who is friends with the GM.

Post by **brian** » Tue Jun 09, 2015 11:00 am

mister d wrote:Also, when I saw you were the one who posted here, I expected it would be whining about Detroit picking a top assistant coach rather than someone with zero pro experience who is friends with the GM.

No, totally on board with Blashill. I think he has a bright future. That aside, gotta trust Holland after all these years.

(I realize that's a dig at someone or something, but I'm not getting it. Ausmus reference?)

MaxWebster · Post by **MaxWebster** » Tue Jun 09, 2015 12:35 pm

oh sure, Eichel would retain NCAA eligibility throughout his stay at BU if he chooses - a nice NCAA loophole for NHL teams as opposed to the limited junior eligibility (2yrs i think). My point/question was the nebulous cloud around "improper gifts" etc. it's obvious he's not paying for any of this and getting a ton of perks (n.b. i have zero problem with it because who cares but it seems like these are the kinds of things football/basketball players/programs get zapped with when a booster takes Joe X out to lunch and then the program gets shut down and the coach moves on to a new school....). Just wondering where that falls in the spectrum.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Jun 09, 2015 12:55 pm

brian wrote:(I realize that's a dig at someone or something, but I'm not getting it. Ausmus reference?)

(Flyers fans.)

SportsDoc · Post by **SportsDoc** » Tue Jun 09, 2015 2:39 pm

brian wrote:
MaxWebster wrote:i should probably know this, having followed college hockey a bunch in the past (...although i could give a shit about NCAA rules etc), but this just occurred to me:

how is Jack Eichel and/or BU not violating NCAA rules when he goes to the Scouting Combine in Buffalo (as well as every other NCAA prospect)? and then he is flown to Chicago with the other top eventual draftees for TV interviews and feting etcetcetc?

I'm sure the answer is that he's "paying his own way" and definitely not being treated to wings.

but seriously what's the official ruling here? am i missing the point (again)?
If Eichel doesn't sign does he retain NCAA eligibility? Otherwise I don't see how it's any different than the NFL Combine or players being flown to meet with NFL teams, etc.

NHL way of drafting should be the model for all other Pro sports.

In NHL you become Draft eligible when you are 18 and remain in the draft pool for 2 years, after which you are a Free Agent. If you are an NCAA player you are allowed (by the NCAA) to have a "family representative" negotiate with the NHL team with your rights without losing eligibility. You are also allowed to go to your team's Rookie Camp each summer as long as you pay your own way without losing eligibility. The NHL team retains your rights until August 1st* after your Senior year, then you become a FA.

MLB differs in that those drafted out of HS have to be signed by August 15th* or the MLB team loses your rights. If you go NCAA route instead, you are not draft eligible until after your Junior season (I believe JUCO players are always draft eligible).

I would like to see NFL and NBA change their drafts so a player could be drafted without losing eligibility, which means don't make the player declare. And then, similar to NHL, allow teams to keep players rights for 2 years, or whatever else they come up with.

* Dates might not be exact, but that's what they used to be.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 12:53 pm

Anyone in the Wilkes Barre - Scranton area right now might want to invest in a poncho just in case that insane Talbot for the 16th overall rumor comes to pass.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Tue Jun 23, 2015 7:57 pm

So, the NHL is going to 3-on-3 overtime. I'd guess this will reduce the number of games going to shootout.

Here's a good article about what to expect.

Post by **brian** » Tue Jun 23, 2015 8:16 pm

I like it. Theoretically should favor the better skilled team and prevent shootouts.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Jun 23, 2015 8:56 pm

3 point games, go back to normal OT, stop with the stupid gimmicks.

Post by **brian** » Tue Jun 23, 2015 9:43 pm

mister d wrote:3 point games, go back to normal OT, stop with the stupid gimmicks.

Totally agree on 3 point games but I don't see the NHL ever doing that.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Jun 23, 2015 9:50 pm

Is the reason that it might separate the good teams from the bad and ruin the parody-driven playoff races? If that's not it, I have no idea why. 3 for regulations, 2-1 for OT is just too obvious.

Post by **brian** » Tue Jun 23, 2015 10:00 pm

mister d wrote:Is the reason that it might separate the good teams from the bad and ruin the parody-driven playoff races? If that's not it, I have no idea why. 3 for regulations, 2-1 for OT is just too obvious.

Yeah I think the league likes the bullshit parity. What's worse is that I think most of the teams like it too. Anything to help coaches and GMs keep their jobs.

MaxWebster · Post by **MaxWebster** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:56 am

this is exactly it.

3 on 3 is nearly as much a gimmick to me as the shootout.

(ok slight exaggeration but jeez)

mister d wrote:Is the reason that it might separate the good teams from the bad and ruin the parody-driven playoff races? If that's not it, I have no idea why. 3 for regulations, 2-1 for OT is just too obvious.

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 5:42 am

Three point games

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 6:39 am

Maybe they could reduce a win to 1 point but still give a point for a tie but then not give an extra point for OT/shootout but still play them because "fans love the shootout".

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 10:55 am

Rather than focus on what I wish they would do, I'm interested in what this new rule change will actually mean. Clearly, it will significantly reduce the number of games going to shootout, based on the AHL's experience.

Dobber's Hockey wrote:...just under a quarter of all games at both the NHL and AHL level go to overtime. At the NHL level 10.7% of games are decided in overtime and a further 13.8% have to go to shootout. The numbers were similar for the AHL but with a slightly higher portion of games going to the shootout with just 4-on-4 overtime. Adding 3-on-3 overtime (in AHL) has reduced shootouts to just 5.6% of games a reduction of 10% from last season’s 15.6%. That’s huge... There are 1230 NHL games every year and currently 13.8% of them go to a shootout. Drop that to just 3.8% and you have 123 extra games decided by an actual goal... That’s not an exact extrapolation of course, let’s say instead of dropping by 10% we see the NHL 3-on-3 overtime reduce shootouts to the same level we’ve seen at the AHL level this season (5.6%). In that case we’d still see an extra 101 games decided through an actual goal.

link

Post by **brian** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 10:56 am

Goalies don't like the change, but fuck them. Who likes goalies anyway?

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 10:57 am

brian wrote:Goalies don't like the change, but fuck them. Who likes goalies anyway?

Goalies don't like shootouts, either.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:39 pm

NHL to announce opening of expansion process

excerpt... wrote:...Bettman is expected to leave the process open-ended: The NHL is ready to entertain bids, but won’t commit to a specific number of teams. It will likely end up being two, but no guarantees will be made.

The significance of the announcement being made in Las Vegas shouldn't be lost on anyone. An arena is well on its way to completion here just off the strip behind the New York-New York casino and prospective owner Bill Foley has taken deposits for more than 11,500 season tickets.

Foley's group has consulted with Winnipeg Jets owner Mark Chipman over the last several months on how to conduct a ticket drive and follow proper league protocol.

Las Vegas is going to get a NHL team. There will be competition for the other spot, with Seattle and Quebec City among the favourites to land it...

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:42 pm

Maybe Bettman should expand into China before the KHL does.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:59 pm

I'm sure goalies like the shootouts a lot more than they'll like the additional goals allowed from 3 on 3.

Post by **brian** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:04 pm

mister d wrote:I'm sure goalies like the shootouts a lot more than they'll like the additional goals allowed from 3 on 3.

Right, that shizz is going to go on their GAA and save percentage stats (I assume).

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:18 pm

From that same article I linked above, there was this (written from a fantasy hockey perspective, but the points are valid.)

The good news is that something like 100 extra goals won’t really affect outcomes for goaltenders that drastically. Goalies work with sample sizes where a couple extra goals won’t throw things massively. It should be noted that the league average save percentage is .914 so the difference between an average goalie and a good one – the top 15 goalies this season have a .920 save percentage or higher – is six goals over the course of 1,000 shots. Starting goalies face between 1,500 and 2,000 shots a season. If each team is allowing an extra three goals, that might cause a drop in save percentage by .001-.002. That’s not negligible but not substantial either.

Of course, as with skaters above, randomness will occur. Certain teams will lose much more frequently in overtime at 3-on-3 than others. Those teams, most likely the weaker ones will see their goalies continue to suffer even more. Three extra goals across 1,750 shot attempts might not move the needle much but 12 extra goals would. So a team get banged on a lot more frequently could see some serious losses. An extra 12 goals across 1,750 shot attempts would mean a drop in save percentage by .007. Remember that the difference between an average goalie and a good one is .006 percent. We could in theory see some losers on the goalie front.

Consider the example of Kari Lehtonen who has a 2-7 record in games decided in overtime this season. If those seven losses never happened and instead the game went to the shootout his save percentage would be sitting at .909 instead of .905 where it currently sits. He’d still be having a bad season and he’d only climb one spot on the league save percentage list but it could be meaningful.

That’s not exactly how things would work though. Games extending into 3-on-3 before going to the shootout would mean more shots for goalies. More high percentage shots but still more shots and thus the opportunity to make more saves. We can’t merely add an average of three goals per team to the same volume of shots goalies normally face because in reality they will be facing slightly more shots as well. But working up a model to project how many extra shots might be faced is beyond my expertise.

I think it’s fair to approximate that while league save percentages will slump slightly as a result of the extra 100 goals being added for most goalies that impact will be negligible relative to the league average. Some goalies – I’m looking at those for Edmonton, Arizona and Carolina here – may face steeper drops because of the quality of the team in front of them.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 3:33 pm

Hockey players are a tad bigger than they used to be. Old-time hockey Hall-of-Famer, "Terrible" Ted Lindsey poses with the nominees for his namesake trophy, Carey Price, Jamie Benn and Alex Ovechkin.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 4:06 pm

I am sooooooooooooooooooooo excited for an expansion draft.

Post by **brian** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 4:28 pm

So Las Vegas is locked in. Who gets the other expansion team? Gotta be Seattle or QC.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 4:49 pm

brian wrote:So Las Vegas is locked in. Who gets the other expansion team? Gotta be Seattle or QC.

Those are the three with formal interest stated. A second team in Toronto, or elsewhere in southern Ontario, has also been mentioned a lot in my twitter feed.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 8:21 pm

Your Lady Byng winner

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Fri Jun 26, 2015 9:06 am

Yooooooo that Lehner trade really ups the ante for Talbot. Either we get the #16 (or the high 2nd + a prospect) and have the option of dumping Glass (not that AV would allow it) or Sather has to deciding between holding or getting killed for missing out on the value.

BSF21 · Post by **BSF21** » Fri Jun 26, 2015 9:38 am

Lots of happenings today. Soderberg goes to the Avs, Buffalo trades for a first rounder. I love this time of year.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Fri Jun 26, 2015 9:50 am

BSF21 wrote:Lots of happenings today. Soderberg goes to the Avs, Buffalo trades for a first rounder. I love this time of year.

Buffalo traded away a first rounder and had to take Legwand, Awful.

That's 7 actual 1st round picks being moved but now the 21st overall has moved twice (Islanders - Buffalo - Ottawa) meaning 8 1st round picks have been swapped.

So much for all that 1st rounders are gold talk. GM's are as crazy as ever.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Fri Jun 26, 2015 10:54 am

I disagree, degen. Getting a good 23 year-old goalie with a lot of upside potential for a mid/late #1 is a good deal, imho. Who cares about Legwand.

Seems to me that both Soderberg and O'Reilly are over-valuing themselves. Neither seems to be worth what they're asking,

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Fri Jun 26, 2015 10:55 am

mister d wrote:Yooooooo that Lehner trade really ups the ante for Talbot. Either we get the #16 (or the high 2nd + a prospect) and have the option of dumping Glass (not that AV would allow it) or Sather has to deciding between holding or getting killed for missing out on the value.

Why does NY value Glass so highly? He's nothing but a replaceable part. A pug with limited talent.