The Swamp

Bedard has been claiming Welker will be gone since September, but I do think the Pats wanted to keep him and use him for a lesser role (on their contract terms) and a different offense, so they would have a better chance against the Ravens, the Jets when they have the personnel, and the Giants. I don't know anything about the guy from the Rams other than McDaniels must like him and Belichick trusts McDaniels (which is another topic we can get into).

The Pats are taking a ton of risks: the middle of the field guys they chose over Welker are younger but more injury prone and now Denver will be much tougher to beat. So it comes down to Gronk etc. staying healthy and finding an outside threat.

As for Brady being pissed mention above, I'm sure he is, but he was pissed when Milloy, Branch, and Seymour got jettisoned. He gets pissed but still manages to play well.

McDaniels is a phenomenal offensive coach when it comes to schemes and stuff, but he has to be the worst talent evaluator in the NFL today.

Grasspenis wrote:Danny Amendola is not that good. This motherfucker turned an 80+ catch 2011 season into 650 yards. Enjoy the games he is able to play in.

Rush is the stereotypical Patriots fan, right? What are the freak instances, he's hit by NFL players in NFL games and his bones break?

IMO, this is the very definition of injury prone. Some guys bodies just can't withstand hits, and break down easy, hence injury prone. Sure, some guys have weak ankles that sprain all the time or hammies that pull easy, and some guys have weak bones that break easy. It's not bad luck, it's injury prone.

RushianRoulette wrote:

The Burglar wrote:

RushianRoulette wrote:10 million guaranteed for Danny, for a younger player that isn't oft-injured, but hurt in sort of freak instances.

No matter the injuries, I think it'd be fair to use similar adjectives for a guy who has missed that much time to injury over the past two seasons.

So glad the kool-aid switched forums with you, Rush.

Welker’s 11 drops last season were second-most in the NFL. Amendola’s drop rate (2.1 percent of targets dropped) rated second-lowest in the NFL.

(Is Gronk considered injury prone? He's missed considerable time with the same type of injuries.)

Danny Amendola had a -7.8% DVOA and a 62% catch rate last year on 101 passes
Wes Welker had a 5.4% DVOA and a 67% catch rate on 175 passes

Clearly Amendola is grittier. Wait...wait...NOOOOOOOOOO

What in the name of Joe Morgan is DVOA?

Obas wrote:What in the name of Joe Morgan is DVOA?

It's basically a site's (I think Profootballfocus) football version of WAR. Not wins above replacement, but it's like an adjusted value per play.

You've got to throw Amendola a lot of balls for him to pick up his 700 yards, I guess. I understand that it was Sam Bradford throwing to him, but I don't think he's all that great and if he were, the Rams probably would have gladly paid him.

Welker got beat out and was a secondary offense option until guys got hurt. He has been destroyed physically over the past 5 years and the Pats made the right move. Amendola is solid and Brady will make him look great. They made the right move here and its not really close, its just that guys not named belichick are sentimental about the guy. Rightfully so, but its still the right move. If they re-up Edelman and it doesnt seem that others really want him, then they will be better off this year not to mention the next 3. There is something to be said for Welker's knowledge of the offense and experience with Brady but generally I agree with the philosophy that you cut bait sooner than later... particularly with the shots hes taken, not to mention the drops. Probably makes up for that with the tough ones but those are going to be less and less frequent while the drops arent going anywhere.

Wasn't that Belichick purposely not involving him in the offense? And then they lost to Arizona?

Hell, maybe Amendola (who is certainly not a threat to become "worn down", no, not Amendola) will be good there. I have no doubt he'll catch a lot of passes. But I doubt he'll be as good as Welk-doug.

And...you're talking about Edelman here. Edelman/Amendola are the primary WR options. Ooooooook. Go Pats!

Whatever happened with Edelman's little sexual assault thing?

Temporary J-Lo wrote:Whatever happened with Edelman's little sexual assault thing?

Obviously, if Belichick doesn't think it was a big deal then it probably wasn't. Just a little grab-ass. Don't question them. Ok?

Dont have to compare Amendola to what Welker was over the past 6 years. Compare him to what Welker will be over the next two. Dont think Amendola's problem is getting worn down. No more so than Gronk is "worn down." Injuries are one thing but an accumulation of huge shots over 10 seasons is a different matter. Its not so much that im high on Amendola as I am down on Welker's future. Just no question that his best football is behind him.

Grasspenis wrote:

Obas wrote:What in the name of Joe Morgan is DVOA?

It's basically a site's (I think Profootballfocus) football version of WAR. Not wins above replacement, but it's like an adjusted value per play.

You've got to throw Amendola a lot of balls for him to pick up his 700 yards, I guess. I understand that it was Sam Bradford throwing to him, but I don't think he's all that great and if he were, the Rams probably would have gladly paid him.

Football Outsiders. If yinz aren't buying the Football Outsiders Prospectus in July, do yourselves a favor and get it this year. Trust me. Even if you're not into advanced stats, it's worth the dough for the writing alone.

And yeah, DVOA is a defensively-adjusted WAR type stat where 0 percent is basically league average/replacement. Like WAR, it's not perfect, but it does take context into account for each play. So a 2 yard reception on fourth and 1 at the opponent 10-yard line with two minutes left is much more valuable than a 19-yard reception on 2nd and 30 with 12 minutes left in the first quarter.

Snaps: Welker leads all WRs

September, 24, 2012
9/24/12

5:00

AM ET

By Mike Reiss | ESPNBoston.com
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BALTIMORE – Snaps played by Patriots skill position players in the team's 31-30 loss to the Ravens, while analyzing what they might mean (small margin of error):

QB Tom Brady – 82 of 82
TE Rob Gronkowski – 82 of 82
WR Wes Welker – 72 of 82
WR Brandon Lloyd – 65 of 82
RB Danny Woodhead – 51 of 82
WR Deion Branch – 42 of 82
WR Julian Edelman – 38 of 82
RB Stevan Ridley – 26 of 82
TE Michael Hoomanawanui – 18 of 82
RB Brandon Bolden – 5 of 82
TE Daniel Fells – 5 of 82
TE Kellen Winslow – 4 of 82
WR Matthew Slater – 2 of 82

(Includes penalties.)

ANALYSIS: Talk of Wes Welker's role with the team should subside this week after he led all receivers in snaps played. ... With the Patriots pressing the issue with the no-huddle, it called on third-down/passing back Danny Woodhead getting the majority of the snaps over Stevan Ridley at running back. … Julian Edelman played the most snaps of any receiver in the first half (38) but didn’t play in the second half because of a left hand injury. … Matthew Slater came on for Brandon Lloyd for two snaps in the fourth quarter, as the Patriots’ receiver ranks were thinned without Lloyd and Edelman at the time. … Kellen Winslow was part of a two tight end package, while Michael Hoomanawanui was part of two- and three-tight end packages, and Daniel Fells was just part of the three tight-end package.

Go Pats!

This is why the database would be awesome. It will be fun to come back to this thread in the future when either of the following occur:

-Splodybones Amendola averages four games per year for a few seasons before getting cut

or

-Amendola helps lead the Pats to three of the next four Super Bowls


There are no other possibilities here.

I'm just wondering how many Pats fans may have been casually watching a Rams game last year and saw Amendola doing his thing and thinking to themselves..."Damn, I wish that guy was a Patriot."

Three? Four?

bryan wrote:I'm just wondering how many Pats fans may have been casually watching a Rams game last year and saw Amendola doing his thing and thinking to themselves..."Damn, I wish that guy was a Patriot."

Three? Four?

There are way more than 3-4 racist pats fans.

AB_skin_test wrote:

bryan wrote:I'm just wondering how many Pats fans may have been casually watching a Rams game last year and saw Amendola doing his thing and thinking to themselves..."Damn, I wish that guy was a Patriot."

Three? Four?

There are way more than 3-4 racist pats fans.

See, I was going to try and tie those two points together (Pats fans have ANOTHER Great White Hope they can get behind AND no one who watched him play the last couple of seasons could really covet him for their team), but I kept tripping over myself. Thanks, AB.

bryan wrote:

AB_skin_test wrote:

bryan wrote:I'm just wondering how many Pats fans may have been casually watching a Rams game last year and saw Amendola doing his thing and thinking to themselves..."Damn, I wish that guy was a Patriot."

Three? Four?

There are way more than 3-4 racist pats fans.

See, I was going to try and tie those two points together (Pats fans have ANOTHER Great White Hope they can get behind AND no one who watched him play the last couple of seasons could really covet him for their team), but I kept tripping over myself. Thanks, AB.

One thing I think we all can agree on: Go Pats!

HOW ARE THE BROWNS AND LIONS DOING THESE DAYS ANYWAY!?!?!?!

bryan wrote:I'm just wondering how many Pats fans may have been casually watching a Rams game last year and saw Amendola doing his thing and thinking to themselves..."Damn, I wish that guy was a Patriot."

Three? Four?

Rush did.

Wait, was he ever used in a Swampcrash question?

Jokes aside, Leon Washington is visiting New England today and would be a great pickup. Was an excellent return man for the Hawks the past three years.

Ryan the Temp wrote:HOW ARE THE BROWNS AND LIONS DOING THESE DAYS ANYWAY!?!?!?!

See, suggesting that those towns are down on their luck because so many black people live in them.

Boston bigots!

Grasspenis wrote:

Ryan the Temp wrote:HOW ARE THE BROWNS AND LIONS DOING THESE DAYS ANYWAY!?!?!?!

See, suggesting that those towns are down on their luck because so many black people live in them.

Boston bigots!

Towns? I only mentioned Detroit.

Grasspenis wrote:Wait, was he ever used in a Swampcrash question?

10. Name a more horrific way to die than bleeding out on the turf at the Edward Jones Dome when your shattered clavicle punctures your aorta (11).

Ryan the Temp wrote:HOW ARE THE BROWNS AND LIONS DOING THESE DAYS ANYWAY!?!?!?!

Status quo, baby! Unfortunately a terrible status, but still! Continuity!

AB_skin_test wrote:

Ryan the Temp wrote:HOW ARE THE BROWNS AND LIONS DOING THESE DAYS ANYWAY!?!?!?!

Status quo, baby! Unfortunately a terrible status, but still! Continuity!

There's something to be said for consistency.

bryan wrote:

AB_skin_test wrote:

Ryan the Temp wrote:HOW ARE THE BROWNS AND LIONS DOING THESE DAYS ANYWAY!?!?!?!

Status quo, baby! Unfortunately a terrible status, but still! Continuity!

There's something to be said for consistency.

I'm the king of tempered expectations when it comes to football.

AB_skin_test wrote:

Ryan the Temp wrote:HOW ARE THE BROWNS AND LIONS DOING THESE DAYS ANYWAY!?!?!?!

Status quo, baby! Unfortunately a terrible status, but still! Continuity!

BROWNS GOT QUO-MENTUM!

Draftin' old rookies like quo

Grasspenis wrote:Wasn't that Belichick purposely not involving him in the offense? And then they lost to Arizona?

That was the game Hernandez got hurt and they weren't able to do the limited Welker offense for the rest of the season because that injury, Edelman, and then Gronk. As far as Patriot fan reaction, based on sports radio, most fans are pissed at Belichick about this.

I never thought my Rams fandom would help bring knowledge to the Swamp...but here we are. Having seen most of the games Danny Amendola has played, I offer the following scouting report (then I want to clear up several factual errors and false impressions). Amendola is a good receiver and gives great effort at all times. He is NOT strictly a slot receiver. He played out wide many games when he was the best WR the Rams had to throw out there. As the coaching staff/Bradford gained more trust in Chris Givens and Brandon Gibson last year, Amendola was put in the slot. He was undoubtably Bradford's safety blanket and managed to get open even with double teams. Belicheat will love the flexibility he brings. The Rams also used him as a kick returner which drove me nuts, but again it's an added dimension. Was he worth $6M/yr? If he stays healthy, absolutely. That's a big if.

Now to correct a few things:
-To say Amendola played for Mcdouche is generous at best. He broke his elbow in game 1 and was out for the year. Also that was the year of no OTAs and abbreviated training camp.
-Amendola was hurt for the Patriots game in London this past year. The only time the Patriots have been on the field at the same time as him was an exhibition game in 2010.
-The Rams did want him back. He wanted #1 WR money and the franchise tag was $10M. They wisely passed.
-Pats fans love to shout at me how the Rams have sucked, and to be fair they have. But the Patriots now have 2 wrs from the 2-14 2011 team (Brandon Lloyd, Danny Amendola) starting TE from 2011 (Mike Hoomanawauni) and their 2010 TE (Danny Fells). Let me know how that works out for you. Brady is obviously worlds better than Bradford, but those guys were on shitty teams for a reason.

Bottom line: if the only option was a 5yr contract, Amendola is the clear choice. I think the Pats will regret not spending 12M for a two year deal.

Eagles just signed Kenny Phillips and Cary Williams.

Like both moves, since, you know, we had no secondary to speak of.

Rams Fanny wrote: -Pats fans love to shout at me how the Rams have sucked, and to be fair they have. But the Patriots now have 2 wrs from the 2-14 2011 team (Brandon Lloyd, Danny Amendola) starting TE from 2011 (Mike Hoomanawauni) and their 2010 TE (Danny Fells). Let me know how that works out for you. Brady is obviously worlds better than Bradford, but those guys were on shitty teams for a reason.

Using that logic, it was also dumb for the Patriots to trade for Corey Dillon and Randy Moss.

FredRomero wrote:

Rams Fanny wrote: -Pats fans love to shout at me how the Rams have sucked, and to be fair they have. But the Patriots now have 2 wrs from the 2-14 2011 team (Brandon Lloyd, Danny Amendola) starting TE from 2011 (Mike Hoomanawauni) and their 2010 TE (Danny Fells). Let me know how that works out for you. Brady is obviously worlds better than Bradford, but those guys were on shitty teams for a reason.

Using that logic, it was also dumb for the Patriots to trade for Corey Dillon and Randy Moss.

The issue with both those guys was character, not ability. While the ex-Rams are not devoid of talent, Brandon Lloyd is quite a drop-off from Randy Moss. Just saying the Pats have acquired a very average set of receivers.

I thought the Pats cut Brandon Lloyd

And for the record, I have nothing against the Amendola signing and I think it could turn out to be a good value for the production. However, the idea of writing off Welker and immediately shouting "upgrade!" seems quite premature and Patriotic.

My point was it's ridiculous to say you can't get good players from bad teams. And Moss's and Dillon's character isn't why their teams sucked. How about Wes Welker from the 2006 Dolphins or about the 1000 other examples of good players leaving bad teams to help a good team? That said Lloyd is the averagist of average receivers and he's now a free agent.