Economic Collapse--The Trainwreck is Now in SuperSlo-Mo

howard · Post by **howard** » Thu Jul 11, 2013 2:38 pm

While I object to the outright lies, even I concede it is appropriate for the Fed Chair to choose his words such that they instill confidence in the economy. But I think he is getting a bit desperate:

U.S. Stock Market Soars After Bernanke’s Reassuring Comments About ‘Pacific Rim’
‘The Giant Monsters And Robots Look Fucking Amazing,’ Says Fed Chief

Post by **Shirley** » Fri Jul 26, 2013 10:32 am

This is a really well-done video showing the growing economic disparity in the US. It's not new info for any of us, but it shows the power of well-executed charts.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Fri Jul 26, 2013 10:40 am

Niall Ferguson's speech in Sweden on July 1 about Degeneration of Western Powers (title of his new book).

There are fascinating charts and stats also about the distibution of wealth in the US (and the west) and how the 'land of oppotunity' is no longer.

The other parts feature Swedish economists.

howard · Post by **howard** » Mon Aug 05, 2013 9:44 am

I'm not often right, but I kinda nailed this one. On June 21st I guessed a big short-term rally. (By 'I guessed' I mean the smart people I read called it, and I parroted it.) Since then, 135 S+P points, 8.5%, almost straight up (a little less than 1000 DOW points).

From here, three possibilities: it could go up higher; it could go down; it could go sideways. Your welcome.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Mon Aug 05, 2013 9:52 am

Did you bet?

howard · Post by **howard** » Mon Aug 05, 2013 11:59 am

Not nearly enough. $1000, leveraged up. $275 profit, after commissions. Not greedy enough.

HDO45331 · Post by **HDO45331** » Mon Aug 05, 2013 12:08 pm

howard wrote:Not nearly enough. $1000, leveraged up. $275 profit, after commissions. Not greedy enough.

Hell, I thought you didn't even get out of bed for that kind of money.

Put a couple of zeros on the end.

howard · Post by **howard** » Mon Aug 05, 2013 1:39 pm

That is when I am on the other side of the con. When I am the sucker, small small bites.

howard · Post by **howard** » Wed Aug 07, 2013 8:42 am

But if you study the logistics
And the heuristics of the mystics
You will find
That their minds
Rarely move in a line
So it's much more realistic
To abandon such ballistics
And resign to be trapped on a lethal divide

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howard · Post by **howard** » Tue Aug 13, 2013 8:04 pm

A Final Note on U.S. GDP Revisions

When in doubt, ignore the problems

On Wednesday, July 31, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, undertook a major revision of GDP statistics. The result was a major upward revision of GDP numbers for the 2nd quarter and for 2012. While the BEA revises numbers and its methods every five years, this time the revisions were extraordinary and particularly significant.

GDP for 2012, as I pointed out in my prior article, ‘Economic Recovery by Statistical Manipulation’, was raised by almost 33% as a result of the BEA revisions–from the 2.1% annual growth to 2.8%. Moreover, the consensus forecasts by economists for the recent 2nd quarter 2013, which averaged 0.9% according to the Reuters survey, came in at nearly twice that, at 1.7%, due to the revisions. This is not a normal upward revision, most of which made in previous years by the BEA had very little effect on GDP numbers.

howard · Post by **howard** » Tue Aug 27, 2013 2:05 pm

howard wrote:I'm not often right, but I kinda nailed this one. On June 21st I guessed a big short-term rally. (By 'I guessed' I mean the smart people I read called it, and I parroted it.) Since then, 135 S+P points, 8.5%, almost straight up (a little less than 1000 DOW points).

From here, three possibilities: it could go up higher; it could go down; it could go sideways. Your welcome.

I forgot to note. I got stopped out of my position at 1690, a couple of days after that post. If only I could make trades like this six times out of ten, I'd have something going for myself.

howard · Post by **howard** » Wed Sep 18, 2013 3:03 pm

Thank you, the Ben Bernank. Keep on printing!

More market reaction
Fucking fools.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 2:51 pm

howard · Post by **howard** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 3:34 pm

You mean Acme doesn't really manufacture widgets?

howard · Post by **howard** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 7:17 pm

Your Pension Is Under Attack From All Sides. Here's 10.

Taibbi: Looting the Pension Funds

howard · Post by **howard** » Mon Oct 14, 2013 6:08 pm

Just a quick update, as there is little news to post, and it has all been said previously.

The economy is still fucked.

The exposure of the degree of just how fucked is no longer a matter of opinion. It has been reduced to a math problem.

Only a matter of exactly when. But the exposure of the true state of things is assured.

howard · Post by **howard** » Sun Dec 29, 2013 2:37 pm

wlu-lax can have the workweek. I am the king of the weekend egghead links! Here are two more.

Petty impressive
Meet Sir William Petty, the man who invented economics

Adam Smith, Communitarian
Adam Smith’s Pluralism, Jack Russell Weinstein, Yale University Press, 341 pages (book review)

Smith's Wealth of Nations has been mangled and misrepresented by modern economists and politicians, as I learned when I read it myself. His earlier work, The Theory of Moral Sentiments I have not gotten to yet; here he deals with human nature, emotion vs rationality, and topics such as sympathy. (Sounds like a fucking commie, if you ask me, which you didn't.)

We forget or ignore that these founding fathers of economics, Smith, Hume, Ricardo, et al, were philosophers (by most definitions), exploring and describing human nature. The disconnect between their work and the current variety of 'behavioral economics' seems vast, the more I read. And I got a lot more to read.

“Books to the ceiling,
Books to the sky,
My pile of books is a mile high.
How I love them!
How I need them!
I’ll have a long beard by the time I read them.”

~ Arnold Lobel, “Whiskers and Rhymes,”

elflaco · Post by **elflaco** » Mon Dec 30, 2013 6:35 am

Printed yesterday in one of the English language papers in Tanzania -- certainly the local prevailing way of thinking (except for those with the money and access to power)
http://www.africanexecutive.com/module ... urn false;

then i noticed it was a harvard.edu email addy... and CEO of a gold mine... along with several other worthy ideals.

howard · Post by **howard** » Sat Jan 25, 2014 1:55 pm

What better time for a long economic rant? (Wait, I thought this was the Sports and Society class)

Naw. Just a reminder that the happy time print money bullshit can't hold up the house of cards forever. And it might be starting to end. When even McDonald's and Walmart are sucking it, it might be the time.

Still sucks balls. No jobs. Really bad shit in China and otherwise abroad. Stay tuned and be careful out there.

howard · Post by **howard** » Sun Jan 26, 2014 7:58 pm

China Halts Bank Cash Transfers

No way do I claim to know what is going on, nor the larger significance. But I'm watching. If cash is tight, why not just print up some more?

The Sybian · Post by **The Sybian** » Sun Jan 26, 2014 8:27 pm

howard · Post by **howard** » Wed Jan 29, 2014 11:59 am

The other day, a filthy rich, flamboyantly-living venture capitalist, Tom Perkins, spoke vigorously in defense of his socioeconomic class. Got his head nailed to the floor, as speaking about class, aloud, in mixed company (where other classes can hear) is just not done. Cost Mitt the presidency, some might say; undeniable that his 47% remark it cost him a buttload of votes.

I met Tom back in the dot-com days, asked him (begged him?) for a job. He was gracious and nice enough, I bear no grudge nor ill will. The reaction to his outburst has little to do with him personally. It is important for other reasons.

Of all the aspects of the world we Americans are ignorant, the realities of class in America is near the top of the list. While it would behoove the masses to gain a better understanding of these realities before they are forced upon us (as they were in the 1930s, as they are to an increasing chunk of us whom are unemployed, underemployed and overburdened by inflation and wage/price manipulations by, um, the rich plutocratic class running the show), little bloody chance of that insight occurring in advance of the next leg down.

As individuals, I think it also behooves us to think about, and (shudder!) even talk about class. In search of that elusive insight. One of the greatest victories of modern propaganda is the prevention of such thought and conversation.

The wealthy plutocrats have waged class warfare, and continue to do so, with great success. If they have not won final victory, they sure look like Patton and Zhukov in April 1945, fifty Km out of Berlin. I don't mind being the dude in a cave on a small island near Okinawa, still fighting.

When *they* insist there is no class warfare, or that talking about class will create class warfare, they are lying. When the other side doesn't know they are in a war, winning is easy and can even be achieved w/o firing a shot. (That Sun Tzu dude said something like that.)

Nice of Tom to refresh us with a blast of reality, some insight into how his class views the conflict. Too bad they nailed his head to the floor, least we get any ideas. Like talking aloud about class warfare.

How Tom Perkins Transgressed the Unwritten Law

A quick word about taxes, welfare and minimum wage laws. I dislike all three. I do not dislike all three because 'they hurt the rich' or 'they impair the ability of the rich to make us all prosperous'. Such criticism of any view opposing these government measures is often painted/dismissed as such, as automatically a defense of the rich and their interests.

Not so.

I dislike these measures because they are tools used by the rich to their benefit. Consistently. Almost always.

The rich do everything possible to not pay taxes. Almost always with great success. Especially in the USA in the past 40 years. The tax code, the very idea of an income tax, hurts us, the masses, to the benefit of the rich.

The idea that, 'if only we change the tax law, to an enlightened code, we can reverse that condition' is a delusion. A mere dream. A childish fantasy, used to transfer wealth from us to them.

Welfare too. Banks, corporations, big money interests collect many multiples of the welfare dished out to the masses. Directly, like the bank bailouts, or indirectly, through inflation/money printing. Even the process of handing out welfare to the masses creates profit for banks (JP Morgan-Chase administers the SNAP food stamp program,getting paid for sending out the cards, loading them up every month, then again getting paid when the cards are used at the checkout--yes, I am jealous.)

Minimum wage laws are but one small force that acts on a complex market for labor that is much more powerfully distorted by other government dictates. Like immigration and inflation policies. The unintended and unanticipated effects of minimum wage laws frequently (almost always?) negate the intended progressive effects. The standard Libertarian/Republican explanations for why these laws fail to help the masses nearly always lie/misstate/oversimplify the facts. Anyone who says a mandated minimum wage is a simple matter of good-bad is wrong, either intentionally lying or ignorantly not understanding the reality.

Sorry, that wasn't quick. I'll try again. Taxes hurt us, and don't hurt the rich. Welfare makes many of the rich rich, they get most of the pie while the mass poor get crumbs. Labor market is complicated, and government mucking in it is a bad idea with unintended bad effects.

Here is some Taibbi fun, speaking of bank welfare:

Bailout Architect Runs For California Governor; World Laughs

howard · Post by **howard** » Sun Feb 02, 2014 4:21 pm

Economics isn't just money. Obvs. Other things. Like oil.

And, like water. So I hear California is having acute water supply problems, severe enough for population water conservation (and political exhortations to don't flush or shower as often, from gov moonbeam II.)

I have also heard recently that Cali does a bit of fracking for oil or gas (I don't even know which, or if it is both.) And that the state may be on the verge of a fracking boom.

Fracking consumes prodigious quantities of water. Poisoning that water in the process.

My early conclusion, subject to flexible interpretation of new info, is that this is fucking madness. And I ain't no tree-hugger. I do like to drink clean water, I'll admit that bias. I'd hate to run out, even if I can't heat it cheaply (or at all.)

howard · Post by **howard** » Tue Mar 25, 2014 7:03 pm

Deutsche Bank-er Explains Why He Committed Suicide

rass · Post by **rass** » Wed Mar 26, 2014 5:55 am

When Black Friday comes
I'll stand down by the door
And catch the grey men when they
Dive from the fourteenth floor

howard · Post by **howard** » Wed Mar 26, 2014 2:22 pm

rass wrote:
When Black Friday comes
I'll stand down by the door
And catch the grey men when they
Dive from the fourteenth floor

But…

is Muswellbrook a real place, or what?

(You can really hear the Jeff Porcaro on that tune)

howard · Post by **howard** » Mon Mar 31, 2014 10:58 am

Oh, I rant for years about how the stock market is rigged (primarily by high-frequency trading), and everybody sez 'you crazy'. But Michael Lewis says it, on 60 minutes, and it is big news.

The Sybian · Post by **The Sybian** » Mon Mar 31, 2014 11:03 am

howard wrote:Oh, I rant for years about how the stock market is rigged (primarily by high-frequency trading), and everybody sez 'you crazy'. But Michael Lewis says it, on 60 minutes, and it is big news.

There are still people who don't think it's rigged?

howard · Post by **howard** » Mon Mar 31, 2014 11:25 am

Well, they still 'invest' in it. But, as I have finally come to understand, people do a lot of things that don't make sense, even to themselves.

DC47 · Post by **DC47** » Mon Mar 31, 2014 11:37 am

howard wrote:Well, they still 'invest' in it. But, as I have finally come to understand, people do a lot of things that don't make sense, even to themselves.

Because there are entities that skim from the securities market a very, very small amount as a percentage of overall profits, does not mean that others cannot make a nice profit in this game.

This doesn't make skimming fair. Nor other forms of cheating which are undeniably going on in the securities markets. I'd be glad to see one finance executive per day make the perp walk on national TV.

But I'm not going to throw in my hand if I have reason to think I can play winning poker despite the cheating.

howard · Post by **howard** » Mon Mar 31, 2014 11:49 am

DC47 wrote:But I'm not going to throw in my hand if I have reason to think I can play winning poker despite the cheating.

Having a clear understanding of the added risk that the cheating entails is a good thing; few people have this clear understanding. The majority are in denial about this added risk. You can absolutely make plenty of money playing in a rigged game.

I can't, in this particular rigged game. Too much cognitive dissonance between my ears. That is just me. It cost me money to learn this lesson, but once learned it (probably) has saved me much more. There are plenty of people who are getting rich, with their eyes wide open. Good on all of you, no sour grapes from me.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Mon Mar 31, 2014 12:13 pm

I'll do 6 months for ten million.

DC47 · Post by **DC47** » Mon Mar 31, 2014 12:16 pm

howard wrote:
DC47 wrote:But I'm not going to throw in my hand if I have reason to think I can play winning poker despite the cheating.
Having a clear understanding of the added risk that the cheating entails is a good thing; few people have this clear understanding. The majority are in denial about this added risk. You can absolutely make plenty of money playing in a rigged game.

I can't, in this particular rigged game. Too much cognitive dissonance between my ears. That is just me. It cost me money to learn this lesson, but once learned it (probably) has saved me much more. There are plenty of people who are getting rich, with their eyes wide open. Good on all of you, no sour grapes from me.

Far more people are getting killed due to what goes on between their ears than due to the multiple forms of cheating in the securities market. Witness the rather large and permanent gap between the average returns of mutual funds and the average return on shareholder's mutual fund dollars. That is, most retail investors have terrible timing, so they vastly underperform market averages. After inflation, taxes, and costs, a fairly large percentage are actually net losers (despite believing otherwise). So I'd say you are doing what Socrates suggested -- knowing yourself -- in a world where that is rare. This leaves you free to profit in other domains where you have a genuine competitive advantage.

Stepping back from the endemic cheating in the financial world, of which high-frequency trading may not crack the top 10, it is possible to see a bigger picture where global capitalism is massively cheating humanity.

Put simply, the elite capitalists use power to rig politics to extract vast profits that few would find legal and fewer would find fair. Massive amounts of bribery, government corruption, theft, pollution, and human exploitation are the obvious detritus (i.e., externalities imposed on human beings now and in the future).

The securities markets allow relatively small players to get a cut of this action, in addition to being rewarded for taking the baseline level of capitalist risk. Put another way, most investors benefit in some way from the power of global capitalism to dominate humanity.

I decry getting ripped off by the front-runners, inside traders, accounting scammers, and other assorted evil-doers in the finance ecosystem. It's not just bad in theory, or bad for the other poor fool -- this has probably cost me several hundred thousand dollars over my investing life. And there is more damage to come.

But I try to remember that at the same time I am being defrauded, I benefit from a global capitalist system that is far more evil and corrupt. I'm not happy about my role as beneficiary. But I'm not willing to sacrifice the rewards that come from being a (minor) capitalist in order to stand aside from the corrupt system. I try to do good in my everyday life; that includes protesting the evils of the global capitalist system. And that has not come free for me. But at the same time I know that no matter how much good I do, I am in no sense pure. Not even close. This darkness on my soul tempers a bit of my outrage about governments allowing obviously corrupt practices like high-frequency trading to continue. Sure, it's bad. But there are worse things, and I get my cut.

Which way to the Confessions thread?

DC47 · Post by **DC47** » Mon Mar 31, 2014 12:18 pm

Gunpowder wrote:I'll do 6 months for ten million.

I think the going rate is roughly 1000 X your bid in terms of personal risk. But I'll pass along your offer to the lower ups in the organization. If you smell brimstone, you'll know you're being called in for a Round 1 interview.

DC47 · Post by **DC47** » Mon Mar 31, 2014 2:04 pm

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/arc ... ng/359862/

It's not the 1%.

howard · Post by **howard** » Mon Mar 31, 2014 3:37 pm

DC47 wrote:http://www.theatlantic.com/business/arc ... ng/359862/

It's not the 1%.

Duh. The author is an idiot if he has written over and over about the 1%/99% divide.

This was a slogan, not math. A highly effective slogan, but ultimately millions of people missed the point (with an interesting pattern of scatter of the misses.)

DC47 wrote:Far more people are getting killed due to what goes on between their ears than due to the multiple forms of cheating in the securities market.

Word. And all the rest.

Outstanding post. Agree with every word. It prompts additional thought and reaction from me, but I'll not sully it with any elaboration or commentary. Just outstanding.

DC47 · Post by **DC47** » Mon Mar 31, 2014 4:39 pm

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1 ... 1140034982

We need one of these on Wall Street.

howard · Post by **howard** » Mon Mar 31, 2014 4:43 pm

That is exactly what Occupy was.

Not necessarily what it was intended to be. What it was. (Among other things.) In this regard, Win!

DC47 · Post by **DC47** » Mon Mar 31, 2014 5:10 pm

Perfect model for the American version. 80 feet tall, black granite. Towering over the bull, now curled up in the fetal position.

howard · Post by **howard** » Mon Mar 31, 2014 9:37 pm

I stumbled on this article, and it fits nicely with our chatter today. Posted here…with extreme prejudice:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-3 ... llow-world" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
(from http://www.salientpartners.com/epsilontheory/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; )

While I'm posting links, a good analysis on the real enemy of Ukrainia

http://mondediplo.com/2014/04/03ukraine" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;