The Swamp

Shirley wrote: ↑Fri Apr 19, 2024 12:12 pm From the stupid, conspiratorial shit I've heard other pro athletes say out loud, I suspect Rodgers has a lot of teammates who agree with him.

Hey, we’re all sports fans here, but I think we also all know that most of these guys weren’t exactly trying to get on the dean’s list during their college years.

Dialed my 2024 team rankings in. Top Ten O/U picks per my spreadsheetz:

1. Tampa over 8.5 (+125)
2. Washington under 6.5 (+100)
3. Arizona under 6.5 (+100)
4. SF over 11.5 (+125)
5. Minnesota under 6.5 (-110)
6. Detroit over 10.5 (-110)
7. NY Jets over 9.5 (-115) - I hate this one either way but my numbers love it
8. Denver under 5.5 (+110) - Same as above, I'm staying away
9. NE over 4.5 (-150) - My number one pick based on the O/U total but the payout kills this one
10. Las Vegas Raiders under 6.5 (+115)

sancarlos wrote: ↑Fri Apr 19, 2024 1:17 pm

Shirley wrote: ↑Fri Apr 19, 2024 12:12 pm From the stupid, conspiratorial shit I've heard other pro athletes say out loud, I suspect Rodgers has a lot of teammates who agree with him.

Hey, we’re all sports fans here, but I think we also all know that most of these guys weren’t exactly trying to get on the dean’s list during their college years.

If Aaron Rodgers utters a peep about Anthony Fauci when they're four games under .500 around Halloween, expect a mutiny in that locker room.

LOL at the thought NFL players are anti-govt, conspiracy-addled fools.

If he wins, he can babble whatever pea-brained thoughts pop up in his head. But if he's not winning? GTFO here.

EnochRoot wrote: ↑Fri Apr 19, 2024 3:42 pm

sancarlos wrote: ↑Fri Apr 19, 2024 1:17 pm

Shirley wrote: ↑Fri Apr 19, 2024 12:12 pm From the stupid, conspiratorial shit I've heard other pro athletes say out loud, I suspect Rodgers has a lot of teammates who agree with him.

Hey, we’re all sports fans here, but I think we also all know that most of these guys weren’t exactly trying to get on the dean’s list during their college years.

If Aaron Rodgers utters a peep about Anthony Fauci when they're four games under .500 around Halloween, expect a mutiny in that locker room.

LOL at the thought NFL players are anti-govt, conspiracy-addled fools.

If he wins, he can babble whatever pea-brained thoughts pop up in his head. But if he's not winning? GTFO here.

He's not winning.

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Fri Apr 19, 2024 1:24 pm Dialed my 2024 team rankings in. Top Ten O/U picks per my spreadsheetz:

1. Tampa over 8.5 (+125)
2. Washington under 6.5 (+100)
3. Arizona under 6.5 (+100)
4. SF over 11.5 (+125)
5. Minnesota under 6.5 (-110)
6. Detroit over 10.5 (-110)
7. NY Jets over 9.5 (-115) - I hate this one either way but my numbers love it
8. Denver under 5.5 (+110) - Same as above, I'm staying away
9. NE over 4.5 (-150) - My number one pick based on the O/U total but the payout kills this one
10. Las Vegas Raiders under 6.5 (+115)

Kinda curious what made you change your opinion on Detroit O/U.

It’s still his sixth best pick. But it’s -110. All his top picks are +.

sancarlos wrote: ↑Fri Apr 19, 2024 9:48 pm It’s still his sixth best pick. But it’s -110. All his top picks are +.

Understood but his first instinct was to flag it as under so even in the top 10 is a switch.

I'm fucking crying right now:

I missed this a week ago: Juju posted his little Juju on Snapchat with his girlfriend in the passenger seat. Like, wtf are you doing, man?

brian wrote: ↑Fri Apr 19, 2024 8:19 pm

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Fri Apr 19, 2024 1:24 pm Dialed my 2024 team rankings in. Top Ten O/U picks per my spreadsheetz:

1. Tampa over 8.5 (+125)
2. Washington under 6.5 (+100)
3. Arizona under 6.5 (+100)
4. SF over 11.5 (+125)
5. Minnesota under 6.5 (-110)
6. Detroit over 10.5 (-110)
7. NY Jets over 9.5 (-115) - I hate this one either way but my numbers love it
8. Denver under 5.5 (+110) - Same as above, I'm staying away
9. NE over 4.5 (-150) - My number one pick based on the O/U total but the payout kills this one
10. Las Vegas Raiders under 6.5 (+115)

Kinda curious what made you change your opinion on Detroit O/U.

About half what you suggested and half underrating them.

I think their defense will be a lot better and I have them as my 2nd best team overall for 2024 (ignoring schedule, just in a vacuum) - 3rd best offense and 10th best defense. Last year they were the 29th ranked defense so even if they only go up to top 20, as long as their offense stays the way it was (offense is stickier year-to-year so I think it will), it should make a huge difference.

In their division, I also have:

Green Bay - 16th in 2024, slight regression
Chicago - 23rd
Minnesota - 25th

Particularly for Chicago and Minnesota, their losses have to be somebody's wins. And I probably don't have Minnesota low enough. So I'm projecting Detroit to be the 2nd best team in the NFL and for their schedule to be tied for the 5th easiest.


Preliminary overall team estimates (scaled 0 to 100):


SFO 100
DET 92
KAN 91
DAL 89
BAL 85
BUF 83
PHI 77
MIA 77
HOU 75
CIN 72
TAM 70
CLE 67
NYJ 65
GBY 65
ATL 61
LAC 54
LAR 53
PIT 51
SEA 45
NOR 43
JAX 43
CHI 41
IND 41
NEP 38
MIN 27
LVR 25
TEN 24
NYG 22
CAR 15
WSH 14
ARI 8
DEN 0

LOL. Rams are a 54.5 minimum.

I don’t disagree that the Broncos are going to suck. But, a zero rating? Gonna be a long year.

sancarlos wrote: ↑Mon Apr 22, 2024 10:34 am I don’t disagree that the Broncos are going to suck. But, a zero rating? Gonna be a long year.

Starting quarterback Jarrett Stidham is leading one of the more depressing rosters in the league. They have about four guys under age 28 who are clearly better than average players. Surtain, Javonte Williams, maybe Marvin Mims as a kick returner... it's not good.

sancarlos wrote: ↑Mon Apr 22, 2024 10:34 am I don’t disagree that the Broncos are going to suck. But, a zero rating? Gonna be a long year.

The 32nd team will always be a zero or whatever I set the minimum to. I think they will score slightly more than zero points but not by much.

DSafetyGuy wrote: ↑Mon Apr 22, 2024 11:20 am

sancarlos wrote: ↑Mon Apr 22, 2024 10:34 am I don’t disagree that the Broncos are going to suck. But, a zero rating? Gonna be a long year.

Starting quarterback Jarrett Stidham is leading one of the more depressing rosters in the league. They have about four guys under age 28 who are clearly better than average players. Surtain, Javonte Williams, maybe Marvin Mims as a kick returner... it's not good.

Williams hasn't really done anything to suggest this yet

The only sports-related thing that is as depressing as how horrible my favorite hockey team is, is how horrible my favorite football team is.

ETA: From a probability standpoint, I believe that the chance of having the worst team in both leagues is 1 in 992. So I got that going for me. Which is not nice.

sancarlos wrote: ↑Mon Apr 22, 2024 11:55 am The only sports-related thing that is as depressing as how horrible my favorite hockey team is, is how horrible my favorite football team is.

ETA: From a probability standpoint, I believe that the chance of having the worst team in both leagues is 1 in 992. So I got that going for me. Which is not nice.

Their new unis are being torched on social media too.

Denver having a normal one today...

The timing in here is just amazing.

SFO 100
DET 92
KAN 91
DAL 89
BAL 85
BUF 83
PHI 77
MIA 77
HOU 75
CIN 72
TAM 70
CLE 67
NYJ 65
GBY 65
ATL 61
LAC 54
LAR 53
PIT 51
SEA 45
NOR 43
JAX 43
CHI 41
IND 41
NEP 38
MIN 27
LVR 25
TEN 24
NYG 22
CAR 15
WSH 14
ARI 8
DEN -6

sancarlos wrote: ↑Mon Apr 22, 2024 11:55 am The only sports-related thing that is as depressing as how horrible my favorite hockey team is, is how horrible my favorite football team is.

ETA: From a probability standpoint, I believe that the chance of having the worst team in both leagues is 1 in 992. So I got that going for me. Which is not nice.

And now we’ve got the worst quarterback this side of Nathan Peterman, too.

mister d wrote: ↑Mon Apr 22, 2024 1:38 pm The timing in here is just amazing.

Same day as the new jersey announcement?

Zach Wilson is going to be nailing some Denver moms who remember when those were originals.

Tom Brady looking like an AI'd John Cena.

Johnnie wrote: ↑Mon Apr 22, 2024 2:18 pm

mister d wrote: ↑Mon Apr 22, 2024 1:38 pm The timing in here is just amazing.

Same day as the new jersey announcement?

FWIW, I like those old uniforms.

Eta: I’m getting texts from various non-Bronco fan friends “congratulating” me on the Broncos’ acquiring Zach Wilson. Sheesh.

sancarlos wrote: ↑Mon Apr 22, 2024 2:34 pm
FWIW, I like those old uniforms.

Me too, pretty sweet.

Yeah, I think we're going to see a generational split of opinion... Orange Crush, Craig Morton... Nostalgia.

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Mon Apr 22, 2024 11:38 am

DSafetyGuy wrote: ↑Mon Apr 22, 2024 11:20 am

sancarlos wrote: ↑Mon Apr 22, 2024 10:34 am I don’t disagree that the Broncos are going to suck. But, a zero rating? Gonna be a long year.

Starting quarterback Jarrett Stidham is leading one of the more depressing rosters in the league. They have about four guys under age 28 who are clearly better than average players. Surtain, Javonte Williams, maybe Marvin Mims as a kick returner... it's not good.

Williams hasn't really done anything to suggest this yet

True. I used "four" thinking there may be someone who wasn't obvious from their Pro Football Reference stats page from last year, like an interior lineman or something.

The classic ones are great to be sure. But when the new ones are being compared unfavorable to Syracuse and UTEP…?

sancarlos wrote: ↑Mon Apr 22, 2024 2:34 pmFWIW, I like those old uniforms.

Eta: I’m getting texts from various non-Bronco fan friends “congratulating” me on the Broncos’ acquiring Zach Wilson. Sheesh.

We were all warned he was cooked before ever playing a game:

Sun God rolling in gold now. 4 yrs $120M, $77M guaranteed — most ever for a WR.

And they extend Sewell as well to most guaranteed money for a OT

Kelli’s nephew’s best friend was drafted by the Steelers so I guess I’ll root for them some next season. Any fans in here?

Giff wrote: ↑Sat Apr 27, 2024 5:48 pm Kelli’s nephew’s best friend was drafted by the Steelers so I guess I’ll root for them some next season. Any fans in here?

Watts, or someone less obvious?

Logan Lee

Detroit shatters NFL Draft attendance record and it’s hard to envision what city would be able to break it. It more than doubled Kansas City last year.

ETA: It was kind of a perfect storm with the Lions being relevant and around 10 other teams’ fans being within a 7-hour drive but damn that was a staggering amount of people all weekend

Giff wrote: ↑Sat Apr 27, 2024 5:48 pm Kelli’s nephew’s best friend was drafted by the Steelers so I guess I’ll root for them some next season. Any fans in here?

Not it.

brian wrote: ↑Sat Apr 27, 2024 6:28 pm Detroit shatters NFL Draft attendance record and it’s hard to envision what city would be able to break it. It more than doubled Kansas City last year.

ETA: It was kind of a perfect storm with the Lions being relevant and around 10 other teams’ fans being within a 7-hour drive but damn that was a staggering amount of people all weekend

They said it was about 3/4 million, which is damn impressive. I would’ve thought 2017 in Philly would’ve had the most, but they were only about a quarter million (highest up until then). It’s possible to put a million people on the Parkway in front of the Art Museum (they did close to that with the Pope), but I don’t think it was nuts-to-butts for that draft from the stage all the way down (I wasn’t there to first-hand witness it, so I’d be talking out of my butt to claim any different). Maybe Lincoln Park in Chicago? Central Park? The proximity of Detroit to so many cities within driving difference was something I didn’t even think of. But cool. I’ve always appreciated Detroit as a city from afar.

Giff wrote: ↑Sat Apr 27, 2024 5:48 pm Kelli’s nephew’s best friend was drafted by the Steelers so I guess I’ll root for them some next season. Any fans in here?

He doesn't even need a new uniform!

I was kind of digging the Texans' vibe last year, so maybe we can do like a co-op thing. Do we have any rival fans in here I should know about? If it's Tom, all I have to ask is that he curses us in British slang.