https://www.godzillawins.com/toby-wreat ... ock-draft/
This is the side hustle that I do on the side of my other side hustle. Side side hustle?
Happy Draft SZN Frogs! I should probably be doing my taxes right now. Instead, I’ve done this.
As usual, the ground rules.
1. My rankings are hastily assembled and only feature players I’ve had “time” to watch. So if you are wondering, “hey where the f is Sergio Beefweasel on your WR list”, well, I didn’t get a chance to watch anything on Sergio Beefweasel so he’s not on the list. I may look at him later and think he’s awesome. But that leads me to number 2. One such example is Jalen Pitre in 2022. I had never heard of him when Houston took him in the early 2nd round so there’s no way in hell he was going to be even considered in my shitty mock but it took about 14 seconds to see that this dude was really good. I probably would have had him as a first rounder if I, uhhh, knew who the hell he was.
2. When I say I spent some time watching a guy, I mean that I most likely spent no more than like 5 minutes. There are hundreds of these guys and this is not my job, as in real life I am the guy who watches the urinals through that little glass hole and flushes them after each use. I just simply don’t have enough time or patience to spend what would be required of each to make a truly comprehensive mock draft.
3. On top of that, I don’t really know what I’m doing. Like when I watch a left guard it basically boils down to “hmm do I think this guy is good or not good, he sure blocked that other guy really nice there yeah he’s good”. This ranks me a distant 32nd among NFL GMs in competence, ahead of only Trent Baalke.
4. I don’t have the inside information that NFL teams have. For example, most people had Teven Jenkins in the first round in 2020. However, medical checks showed something with his back that scared teams off a bit and dropped him to the 2nd. The Bengals had Willie Anderson in 2021 to tell them that Jackson Carman was a good pl….ok maybe that’s not the best example. I also don’t know how these players interview or what their college coaches say about them. Supposedly Josh Allen didn’t even know how to properly take a snap when he was at Wyoming.
5. NOBODY knows how these guys are actually going to turn out. NFL teams spend milllllllions of dollars on this process and even the best teams miss a lot more than they don’t miss. Every jump, be it from high school to college or college to the NFL, has a lot of variables that are tough to determine. Here were the top college recruits in the 2015 class according to SI:
1. Byron Cowart
2. Josh Rosen
3. Iman Marshall
4. Martez Ivey
5. Derwin James
6. Kahlil McKenzie
7. Trenton Thompson
8. Damien Harris
9. Calvin Ridley
10. Terry Godwin
I have heard of four of those guys. It’s like each level is a different planet with a different atmosphere and you can do all the testing you want, it’s still going to be difficult to determine how someone will react to it until you actually place them in that environment.
6. An apparently still little-known secret – even in the first round, most of these guys won’t be all that good. On average, only about 38% of first rounders make even a single Pro Bowl in their careers. But yet every year you read “the Saints have a glaring hole at ILB, but with the selection of Chernobilus Poppyseed will turn the position from a weakness to a strength”. Uhhh, no it probably won’t. He’s probably not going to be all that great and even if he is it won’t be for a few years. There are very few Micah Parsonses in this world.
7. In that vein, if you like or don’t like a guy, keep liking or don’t liking them even if I or someone else disagrees. Like I said, no one knows anything. I thought Justin Herbert and Josh Allen would suck and that Corey Coleman would be a star.
8. This is a hybrid of what I would do and what I think will happen. It’s not exclusively one or the other. That is because this is for entertainment and not an entry into a mock draft competition, which would be a dumb thing to spend time on.
9. Trades happen in every single first round. If you don’t have any trades in a mock draft then it is occurring in a different reality. Which is fine, I’m just saying.
10. Everything in this mock is guaranteed to happen 100% as I predict it will.
A few other things to keep in mind is that positional value is a thing and that age matters. You may say “why draft JJ McCarthy when you can get a top left guard”, but quarterbacks are far more valuable than left guards, at least in the minds of NFL teams. Teams have to pay these guys real money and good free agent QBs/OTs/Edge Rushers (when they even get to free agency) get paid more than good interior offensive linemen and good safeties. Plus, the latter often are available while the former almost never hit free agency.
As for age, the thought (and I agree with it 100%) is that a 21 year old has far more room for development than a 23 year old. Plus, the 21 year old was playing against kids his own age in college rather than an older player tossing around guys he has 2 or 3 years on. So when I say things like “age appropriate”, I’m not referring to P. Diddy but rather to a draft prospect being appropriately aged for college athletics.
So first, a brief overview of my thoughts on this year’s draft class. I think it is quite a weird class, as it seems to have a lot of “lottery ticket” types who are just insane athletes but have one or two glaring flaws. Maybe they all have players like that but this year’s seems to have more. As I’m sure everyone has heard, the quarterback class is extremely deep this year however it’s a few age-appropriate guys and then a handful of twitched-up Brandon Weedens. Wide receiver is also deep but man, outside of the top 2 or 3 guys, it’s a boatload of athletic freaks who either don’t know how to run a route or weigh 150 pounds. It’s also a GREAT year to need a tackle, as this draft has them in spades and – in my opinion, at least – without all of the red flags that the 2nd and 3rd tier wideouts have.
Defensively, if you need a cornerback? Well, you’re in luck, because 2024’s corner class is a lesser version of the offensive tackle class. Not nearly as good at the top end, but still quite deep with good/not great prospects. The Edge class is not as good but it does seem to offer decent depth.
As for the negatives, it is a terrible, TERRIBLE year to need an inside linebacker or a running back. Running backs are weird and random ones hit all the time but my goodness the ILB group is just awful this year. Safety is mostly bereft as is interior defensive line. Tight end is meh at best (and only due to Brock Bowers) as is interior offensive line. Remember that when your team passes on a need at one of the latter spots to take someone from the good groups. Unlike last year, where I thought there was a good amount of solid depth to the 2nd and 3rd rounds, this year’s class seems quite top-heavy. Like, some of these positions fall off QUICK. You can stand to wait on a wide receiver and maybe a corner or offensive tackle but given the positional value of those spots, if an elite prospect is available, you should just take him and figure the rest out later. And yes, each of these teams have different boards and different schemes and different views on who is elite and who is not. I’m ok with any decision that is at least defensible, like Jack Campbell in the first round last year. I didn’t love Jack Campbell’s performance at Iowa but the athletic package he offered was exceptionally rare. I am not ok with say, taking Alex Leatherwood in the first round. Who is this year’s Alex Leatherwood, in that they are a middling prospect who may get hilariously overdrafted? Probably Blake Corum if he somehow sneaks into the top 50. Second guess is Demontez Walker (UNC wideout). Calling my shot!
1. CHICAGO BEARS – Caleb Williams, QB, USC
Don’t overthink it. The Bears tried to overthink it and despite their being the Bears, they eventually came around to the only sensible decision here. No matter what you think of Justin Fields, you can’t pass up on a chance to take a prospect like Caleb Williams. Hell, I would move off most guys to take this shot – Kyler Murray (in a heartbeat), even guys like Jordan Love and Brock Purdy. Even if Williams flames out in spectacular fashion, it’s still worth the risk.
And flame out he may, given the absolute hilarious history of Chicago Bears quarterbacks. Go ahead, take a look. I’ll wait for you.
Hard to believe, right? This franchise’s best QB since Sid Luckman is….Jay Cutler? Is JAY CUTLER the Bears’ GOAT at quarterback? If you aren’t familiar with Sid Luckman, just know that his career began during the Great Depression. And unlike the depression that Bears fans have suffered over the years, that one could not be treated with Prozac.
But at least they aren’t the Panthers, who traded this pick for Bryce Young. Yeah grit and intangibles are great, but maybe we should look at things like arm talent first? And when it comes to talent on the arm, Caleb Williams is Hugh Heffner. Williams can make any throw that you can possibly imagine, and even some that you can’t imagine. He’s arguably more impressive at this than Patrick Mahomes was in college, and he’s certainly more polished. “Breakout age” also matters, and Williams broke out from his very first game in his freshman year at Oklahoma. He’s as close to bulletproof as QB prospects typically get.
Now, there are naturally some negatives. Let’s start with the on-the-field ones. First, he’s a bit undersized compared to a prototype NFL QB body. 6’1” 210 lbs isn’t small but it is smaller than most NFL QBs. Doesn’t seem to affect him, but it is a thing that exists. He also runs around like a lunatic every other play, which has worked for the following NFL QBs:
• Russell Wilson
It’s not a long list. I will say though that he was much better in structure in 2022 than in 2023, a year in which USC was a borderline trash fire with two middling WRs and a defense that gave up about 50 points a week. He essentially needed to make a huge play every series to keep up. The in-structure ability is there and he’s shown it countless times so don’t galaxy-brain this decision. Just take the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck and hope he hits.
As for the other stuff, like snubbing the Combine and wearing tiaras or whatever it is. I don’t care. If I were a borderline lock for the first pick, I wouldn’t do the Combine either. Why? What’s the point? To “compete”? Compete for what? They don’t keep score there.
Wearing lipstick? I mean, yeah, I do think it’s weird, but I’m also 40 now and so things that the kids are doing are really going to start not making sense to me. You can throw the ball just fine while wearing eye-shadow. As long as he doesn’t go full J. Edgar Hoover and take the field against the Packers in stiletto heels, it doesn’t change my opinion one iota.
2. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS – Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
“Here’s where the draft starts!”, says every basic bitch talking head in the land. To be honest, I don’t think the draft starts here. In my opinion, I think it’s almost a lock that the Commanders take Drake Maye and I’m willing to commit seppuku if they don’t. April Fools I’m not willing to stab myself in the chest with a sword jk lol
A lot of media people are hyping up Jayden Daniels to the Commanders and I just strongly disagree that Washington will go in that direction. A few reasons, even though I am not nearly the Drake Maye fan than others are:
• Maye is age appropriate (21) and broke out in his first year as a starter as a redshirt freshman
• Maye has prototypical size (6’5” 220 lbs)
• Maye has arm talent in spades and just looks like an NFL QB
Jayden Daniels is undersized, takes way too many huge hits and didn’t break out until he was a 23 year old 5th year senior. Without a clear edge for either player, I think that heavily tilts this pick towards Drake Maye.
So he’s 21, he’s a prototype, he’s got a big arm and he’s got some wheels to match. So why am I not absolutely sold on him?
Well, he’s got a little bit of Josh Allen disease. He’s not as all over the place as Josh Allen was but he’s quite often missing or putting his receivers out of position with his throws. He also loves to sprint out of clean pockets and often just heaves the ball into traffic. I don’t think he has Josh Allen’s arm, as 1. no one does and 2. that would be a serious crime with massive ramifications for the NFL going forward. Plus, Josh Allen is the outlier of all outliers and chasing outliers is a great way to become an outlier yourself from NFL jobs. Maye isn’t on that level but it’s not necessarily a thing where “oh he can just get more accurate in the NFL!”. Most people don’t. I can only think of three guys who really became significantly more accurate in the NFL, and they are Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and Tyrod Taylor. Most of these guys that start out as Jake Locker just stay Jake Locker. Go ahead, ask Jake Locker who he is. I’ll bet you he says he’s still Jake Locker. Secondly damn man how did you get Jake Locker’s number that’s crazy, ask him how he’s doing.
I see a few players in Maye, and they have different outcomes in the NFL. Justin Herbert looked like a mess at times at Oregon and then immediately wasn’t a mess once he got out of that offense and went to a real one in the NFL. We knew that the scheme at Oregon was bad, but I don’t know if we knew it was as bad as it was. They basically told him not to do good things, and only when he got to the NFL did we see that he is a Fine Young Cannibal. Maye’s time at UNC was similar (minus any cannibalism). He seemingly regressed statistically in 2023, but mannnn was this team underwhelming. The offensive line was far from stout and the wide receivers were Rolling Stone. You mean like, rock stars? No, I mean they can’t go no, da na naaa, separation. People have Tez Walker (Maye’s #1 WR last season) mocked as high as the second round and I think this is just a ludicrous projection for a guy who showed nothing special on the field. Bet he can’t even play guitar.
The other is Jameis Winston, and as much as I love Jameis Winston because he’s just so damn fun to watch, it’s just hard for a tiger to change its stripes. It’s actually likely impossible for a tiger to change its stripes because what do tigers know about weird medical procedures? Drake Maye often plays like a juiced up Jameis, as though he’s much more athletic but still loves to run around blindly and throw a dart right off a linebacker’s facemask. But like what was that guy doing just standing there? It’s his own fault.
That all being said, I’d argue that you don’t get many opportunities to draft guys like this as they usually go at the very top of drafts, and when you have that chance you should seize it. Carpe that diem, Washington.
3. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS – JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan
Alright now THIS is where the draft starts™. I know Belichick isn’t there anymore so I don’t have them trading down despite a burning desire to do so, but I also can’t not have them doing something weird. And yeah yeah you’ve got the “Patriots taking a white guy!” joke here but honestly, I’m buying the hype about teams loving McCarthy and what team would love a Michigan Man and his just-winniness more than New England?
I know McCarthy didn’t do much at Michigan, as Jim Harbaugh was committed to winning the 1962 Rose Bowl (I’m going to come back to this so keep it in mind), but it worked and McCarthy doesn’t determine the game plan so I’m not holding it against him. Sure, he occasionally won games while throwing 8 times and he also threw a ton of short throws behind a punishing run game, but you can’t deny that he throws absolute darts. The guy has got tools, he’s a regular Bob Vila over here. JJ “The Tool Man” McCarthy. (/grunts). He’s also apparently got all of the intangibles that you could ask for, he’s clearly dedicated and all that jazz, and he’s also only 21. Now, I made a rule after Zach Wilson that I will never again rank a quarterback high if he looks like a literal child. McCarthy is close and is the first test of this rule but in the end, I think he looks enough like an adult to pass. He didn’t do athletic testing but clearly looks like he moves extremely well for the position, and he’s very accurate both on- and off-platform. I think he’s the most accurate QB in this class.
Alas, there are negatives here. He’s slightly undersized – not a ton, but he’s not a prototype. He is also addicted to running out of clean pockets to sprint over to the sideline and create, often cooking up a very nice but very 4 yards on 3rd and 3 type of throw. Or he runs. It’s not going to be that easy at the next level. But the biggest red flag to me is the conservative nature of his game. He was often so conservative that you may as well call him Joseph McCarthy. Sure, Michigan was probably telling him not to lose the game, but why? Why on Earth would even a coach like Jim Harbaugh not allow the 3rd overall pick to occasionally air it out, particularly as he has shown the ability to do so? I get that Harbaugh is also somewhat conservative but this mf-er allowed SHEA PATTERSON to throw the ball. But now McCarthy can’t? I happen to think - and this is admittedly a guess – that McCarthy also bears a lot of responsibility for this playstyle. Yeah it’s great to convert on 3rd down but in the NFL but without big plays, eventually that nickel-and-diming ceases to be effective. You can’t win every game 17-13, despite the Pittsburgh Steelers’ insistence on trying. This is what kept Alex Smith from being great – he had all the tools but never used them because he’d rather run for 4 yards and try to convert. Paxton Lynch played similarly at Memphis, which is a frightening thing to say. I realize Lynch was rumored to not give the slightest quantum damn about football but it’s still a playstyle that I don’t like. I also realize that the Patriots cannot go into a season with Bailey Zappe as their presumed starter, but if McCarthy is just another Alex Smith, this is quite an overdraft. Guess we’ll see.
The game against TCU in 2022 also scares me a bit, as it was the one time that Michigan wasn’t just dominating their opponent and McCarthy actually had to score some points. He made quite a few throws that seemed predetermined and dangerous, and many of his “highlight” throws seem that way as well. He’s fitting balls into microscopic windows in year where no team in America has a single good linebacker or safety and there seems to be a luck component to a lot of these. So it’s risky, but then again everyone’s risky so I understand taking a risk on a 21 year old with great tools and hoping you can – famous last words – “coach it out of him”. But really, a gritty gamer from Michigan with great intangibles who is a winner and a great leader and all that and has an underrated arm? I can see the Patriots going for that. Can’t wait until the Pats are 4-11 and a fan pelts him with a Gillette razor during his pre-game meditations.
4. ARIZONA IS ON THE CLOCK
So that last pick throws a wrench into this thing, as the conventional wisdom right now has the Vikings trading up into the 4 spot to take McCarthy. Now, is this because the Vikings love McCarthy, or because they need a QB and people are assuming Jayden Daniels will be off the board? They absolutely cannot go into a season with Sam Darnold as their only option. Well…ok, I mean legally they can do this but Justin Jefferson would lead a mutiny by the end of September.
There are a few teams in the early teens that absolutely need a QB, and they are Minnesota, Las Vegas and Denver. I can see Sean Payton doing some dumb shit and deciding he can make it work with some random scrub to stick it to Russell Wilson. So I don’t think they are a threat to move up here. The Raiders, however, seem like they might be. Is Luke Getsy so scarred from his Justin Fields experience that he absolutely refuses to work with another fast QB? Both of these teams have ammunition to move up but would Arizona pass on a guy who many consider to be a prospect on the level of Larry Fitzgerald?
In the end, despite their clear willingness to trade down, I think the Sand Birds stay put and take their next Larry Fitz.
ARIZONA CARDINALS – Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Marvin Harrison Jr. is not the same guy as his dad, which is a relief for the local murder police. The elder Harrison was a gazelle on the field who created more separation on his worst day than Junior did against Youngstown State. His son, however, is much bigger at 6’4” 205 lbs and he does move a little bit like his dad. Bigger receivers are not supposed to be this fluid and while I do question why Harrison Jr. doesn’t get a ton of separation, I do think the ability is there to develop his route running into something closer to what his dad used to do. As Shakira once said, your hips don’t lie, and Harrison’s hips appear to be telling the truth on many of his routes. However, I do think he moves cleanly enough to get significantly better at this.
Harrison Jr. also has incredible body control (much like DeAndre Hopkins) and regularly makes difficult and contested catches. He’s got very strong hands, which may result in his going to New England as we all know how much that matters to Robert Kraft. Don’t overthink it here – yes Ohio State is good, but so are a lot of these teams. Michigan is good, why isn’t JJ McCarthy being talked about as a 3rd rounder? Marvin Harrison Jr. was massively productive against actual defenses with a trash QB and while there are enough flaws that I don’t think he’s quite “generational” as a prospect, he’s really really good and I think the Cardinals have enough draft capital to spend some of it on an elite player here rather than accumulate more.
5. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS – Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
Did you hear Jim Harbaugh recently? He almost got arrested for indecent exposure while talking about the importance of offensive linemen and I think he’s true to his word. Harbaugh may as well be walking on the Sun with his dedication to smashmouth football. He hired Greg Roman! In 2024! With Justin Herbert! That’s basically a war crime. Remember from earlier Harbaugh’s love of being all tough and ground-and-point and all that? I don’t think he’s just going to stop being that guy.
Between that Jim’s dedication to giving 239% at all times 25 hours a day 8 days a week as he breathes in the sweet vapors of hard work and preparation, I think he’s a man of his word and he passes on Malik Nabers to build up the trenches with this year’s top offensive tackle, Joe Alt.
Alt-Left Tackle is a fantastic athlete who moves like he tests. He’s super fluid for a tackle, he has great footwork, and he’s only 21. He looks like top-tier NFL offensive tackles look. He looks exactly like Joe Thomas at times. I only have one fear and it’s a massive fear – he doesn’t seem to have a whole lot of power and he got moved way too much for my liking in college. He recorded a poor vertical among all other elite testing results which seem to confirm that he needs to build more leg strength. However, players generally get much stronger in the NFL and Alt is young enough that he should be able to add more strength than a 23 or 24 year old draftee. Aside from this he looks like a Hall of Famer. I’m not even being hyperbolic here, he’s that good at everything else. And while the Chargers desperately need receivers, they also need offensive linemen. This team starts something called a Jamaree Salyer on their offensive line.
I don’t know who would play right tackle in this scenario between Alt and Rashawn Slater but I’m sure the Chargers can figure it out as the city burns down their stadium for not taking a receiver.
Kidding, the Chargers don’t have enough fans to burn down a cigarette.
6. NEW YORK GIANTS – Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
What a fortunate turn of events for the Giants here as Malik Nabers falls right into their lap. Most people consider this class to have three great receivers. I however consider it to have two, as Rome Odunze for whatever reason just screams college star only to me. It’s aggressive and I sure wish he would pipe down.
Nabers plays more like a big Marvin Harrison Sr. than Marvin Harrison Jr. does, as he is an absolute rocket of a wideout who looks a lot like Ja’Marr Chase did at LSU. Quick sidenote: when did LSU start having literally every single great wideout on Earth? Did Odell Beckham Jr. do this? Do you have to be a Jr. or Sr. to become a good NFL receiver? If so I guess that’s a huge red flag for Malik Nabers I.
I was tempted to put Nabers ahead of Harrison for the longest time but even if I don’t, he is a fantastic prospect who runs like a deer (aside from the running on 4 legs part) and like a toddler, demands attention on every single snap to keep him out of the end zone. Yes, it was an easy situation on a loaded offense but this is still the SEC and he was still running right past Alabama’s NFL secondary. He’s raw and needs to work quite a bit on his route tree but he certainly seems to have that ability. You can either break smoothly without losing speed or you can’t, and Nabers can. And now the Giants have a receiver that people have heard of for the first time in about a decade.
I considered mocking Jayden Daniels here (ohhhh look at me I’m Jayden Daniels /Adam Sandler voice), but the Giants seem pot-committed to sinking their ship with Daniel “Iceberg” Jones and of course, his entire salary is guaranteed in 2024. I think they should draft a QB, but I don’t think that they will.
7. TENNESSEE IS ON THE CLOCK
This is tricky. I’m sure Tennessee had dreams of Joe Alt falling to them here, however the Khaki King has foiled their plans.
Would Minnesota still want to trade up for a QB? If the draft played out like this, I’m not so sure they would. They traded their second rounder to Houston along with next year’s 2nd rounder for Houston’s first round pick to give them ammunition to trade up. But for this trade? 11 to 7 to jump teams that are certainly not going to take a QB themselves, what – to beat Denver or Vegas to the punch? I don’t think they would trade two first rounders to make that move.
Looking at Denver and Vegas – I don’t think Denver would have interest in Daniels. I do believe Vegas might but do they want to part with their 2nd rounder to do so? Probably not. And really, if Minnesota doesn’t trade into this spot, why would the Raiders? It would be much easier to move to 9. So let’s get dumb. I’m hoping this mock draft gets me committed to a mental institution.
TENNESSEE TITANS – Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Brock Bowers! He’s a lock to be an All-Pro, he’s generational!
Well, I don’t think so, but I’ll go along with it here.
So what is Bowers good at? Well, he moves really well for his size and he’d be a headache for outside linebackers and safeties to cover. He makes some ridiculous highlight reel grabs. And he’s a true YAC threat. Georgia basically used him the way Florida used Ricky Pearsall, they’d do screens and even end-arounds with Bowers. I know it was against some scrub school, but he actually took an end around like 70 yards for a TD at Georgia. That is absurd for a tight end. Can you imagine, I don’t know, Sam LaPorta taking a handoff and just housing it from midfield?
So if Bowers has all of this going for him, plus a really pop-country ass name to boot, why wouldn’t I be confident in this?
Well, to start – this is, what, year 7 on “omg look at this great tight end prospect he’s can’t miss!”? There was OJ Howard, who missed. There was TJ Hockenson, who I guess hit but not before he was traded away to a team inside the division. Kyle Pitts hasn’t really done much. Noah Fant even had some hype. Eric Ebron went 10th overall in arguably the greatest draft of all-time – he was taken before Aaron Donald! Teams might just be tired of doing this.
Sam LaPorta was a revelation. He was a 2nd rounder. Travis Kelce went 3rd round in a terrible draft class. George Kittle went in the 5th round. Mark Andrews was a 3rd rounder (and the Ravens took Hayden Hurst in the first round that season).
Tight end is such a difficult position – it requires the most overall athleticism (by Relative Athletic Score at least), it requires multiple skill sets and great awareness – it’s basically two positions in one. It is so hard to project, and many teams barely even use their tight ends. So few tight ends are true difference makers, and most of the ones that are weren’t really expected to be. So this is a huge risk. It just seems like this position requires more luck than most others when drafting, and it’s not even considered a “premium” position. Tight end is regular old 87 octane.
Particularly for a guy like Brock Bowers, who is undersized and, well, doesn’t really even play tight end. He’s very rarely lining up on the line with his hand in the ground. Instead, he’s more of a slot WR who can block. And most of these blocks are chip blocks or kick outs on corners and stuff like that. He’s not lining up and mauling a defensive end like – well, like virtually all the Iowa tight ends over the last decade. Does that have value? Of course! Should it be drafted top 10? I don’t know! It’s certainly far from a sure thing.
So yeah, Travis Kelce doesn’t block either! Do you know why these “receiving” tight ends are compared to Travis Kelce so often? Because he’s an outlier! You’re far more likely to get Eric Ebron or Evan Engram, who is ok but not worth a top 10 pick by any means.
Tennessee does need a receiver so I do think Bowers would fit well here but I am not sold on him as being some sort of game-changing player.
WE HAVE A (MOCK) TRADE
ATLANTA trades the 8th overall pick to LAS VEGAS for the 13th overall pick, 77th overall pick, and a 2025 5th rounder
8. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS – Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
This may be too far, though I will call my shot a bit here on Jayden Daniels falling. Vegas is close enough to get this done without giving up their 2nd round pick and they have four (!!!) 5th rounders in next year’s draft so forget what I said 3 minutes ago about Vegas not trading up for Daniels. And while I am a card-carrying member of the Minshew Mafia, they surely do not want to go into this season depending on Gardner Minshew if they can help it.
Gardner Minshew is a fine bridge QB; he played that role last year in Indianapolis and from all the pre-season stuff I saw he was a great teammate for Anthony Richardson. He is the type of guy who knows that role and doesn’t mind filling it, while also being capable of playing multiple games and not embarrassing your offense.
But what is a bridge QB if there is nothing on the other side? Why build a bridge to nowhere?
Jayden Daniels is either hyped up as a possible 2nd overall pick or just unfairly crushed, and there is not much in-between with him. He gets the typical scrambly black QB knocks of “oh, he can’t throw!” and “he’s just a running back”, which are absolutely absurd and I get very tired of arguing against them year after year after year. Jayden Daniels will stay in the pocket all day if you let him. He has a better pocket presence than McCarthy (who will sprint to the sidelines at a drop of the hat) and arguably Maye and Caleb Williams. He has a very good arm – it’s not like elite elite but he can flick darts all over the field and he can throw with touch and layer the ball to different levels, though he probably could have done more of it. Yes, he looks like he’s “pushing” the ball rather than “throwing”, but I don’t know enough to know “wtf that even means”. The ball generally gets there. So that’s good.
On top of that, Daniels is extremely fleet of foot. He didn’t do athletic testing but he looks like a legit 4.4 guy when he takes off. Let me go a bit deeper into that while we’re here.
One of the biggest reasons that it is so difficult to project players into the NFL is that you don’t know why they do what they do in college. College teams do not function as NFL minor league teams – they are trying to win, not develop pro football players. So why would LSU discourage Daniels from running when he’s getting 10 yards a pop? Why stop doing half-field reads if they are lighting teams up? While I do think part of McCarthy being conservative is inherent, why would Jim Harbaugh open it up more if it won them a title? And why would UNC do a pro-style offense with receivers who can’t get open on their own? It becomes a “this guy didn’t do this in college, but could he?” type of thing. This is a huge concern for both McCarthy and Daniels. Daniels rarely threw on the run. Was it because he couldn’t or because it was so easy for him to take off for 25 yards?
Secondly, he’s small and thin and takes way too many huge hits and that probably isn’t going to be sustainable if he doesn’t tone it down. Lamar Jackson rarely takes any big, square hits. RG3 used to take them every other week. Don’t be RG or you’ll be on IR.
And thirdly, he’s a 5th year breakout on a stacked offense. Yes, Joe Burrow was similar, but Joe Burrow had to absolutely light it up at a historic level to get there. For most of that season, it was “Tank for Tua” and Burrow was a rising player but still a somewhat fringy first-rounder. It didn’t become “Blow for Joe” until late in the season. Daniels does have a pretty good freshman season at Arizona State going for him, and he did do this for a weird Herm Edwards team, but he also had some talent on that squad (he was throwing to Brandon Aiyuk, among others). Is this fast Joe Burrow throwing to the next two LSU freak first rounders or is this Kenny Pickett all over again? Plus, I know everyone says he’s a great leader, really humble, etc etc type – but the video of ASU players trashing his locker and stealing his stuff when he transferred is hard to ignore. I wouldn’t base my decision on it, but…it’s a thing. You’d prefer that a quarterback’s teammates wouldn’t want to trash his possessions.
Then again, another thing Arizona State did after Daniels left was immediately become terrible again, so there’s that.
CHICAGO IS ON THE CLOCK
I’m struggling a bit with this one. Yeah, Rome Odunze is right there, and the Bears need a WR! But do they truly need one here with DJ Moore already on the roster?
The Bears play in the arctic, they love to froth at the mouth about how great their defense was in 1985, and they are led by a defensive coach who builds a lot of his system around interior defensive linemen. This makes it quite surprising that they passed on Jalen Carter last year but it was still defensible given they needed OL help and there were legit questions surrounding Carter. This year, however, I bet Eberflus wants to add some bears to the Bears.
Unfortunately, this is not a great IDL class – or at least not expected to be one, obviously some of these guys may become stars but they aren’t top-tier elite prospects right now. And after this pick, the Bears don’t select again until round 3, and they only have one 4th rounder on top of that. Ideally, they may want to move down a bit and add some draft capital in the process.
So who wants this pick? Who needs a QB and may have a reason to make a slight jump? Maybe…Denver? Yeah let’s do that, that sounds fun.
WE HAVE ANOTHER (MOCK) TRADE
CHICAGO trades the 9th overall pick to DENVER for the 12th overall pick, 121st overall pick and 147th overall pick
9. DENVER BRONCOS – Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
Yeah yeah, I know, this is stupid and so am I for mocking it. Why wouldn’t the Bears just take Odunze???
Well, for one, I’m not the biggest Odunze fan. Sure he has the measurables, he’s a legit deep threat and he was massively productive in college. But something about him just gives me a feeling that he’s a college star and not an NFL star. I don’t know if it’s that most of production is being mostly a deep threat against single coverage in the PAC-10. I also think he slows down into his breaks, which could be a big problem against NFL corners. I also see him getting jammed up at the line and I would expect more YAC given the explosiveness profile.
And then, the “I’m gonna stay here until I break 6.6 in the cone drill” thing. Trying to get the “man this guy is such a competitor” stories. Just kinda cringey and reminded me of Blaine Gabbert barely making it through the “I will beat whatever team passes on me every year” line in one of those Gruden QB Camp episodes back in the day. This wasn’t nearly as cringey as Gabbert, but man was I out on Blaine Gabbert after that.
And really, one of the major mistakes people seem to make in their mocks is that they aren’t dumb enough. Every year we’re all like “no way Leviticus Thickwood makes it to the 2nd!” and he goes undrafted and teams are drafting Payton Turners and AJ Jenkinses and Darrius Heyward-Beys. Or trading up one spot to ensure that they get Mitch freaking Trubisky. So make sure you add enough irrational insanity to your mocks.
So why Penix? Not going to make any jokes about his name as they have literally all been made 400 times. Well, for one, he kinda reminds me of Drew Brees. He will sit in the pocket until the absolute last second and throw while absorbing a hit. No matter how great people say his arm is, to me it looks kinda weak by NFL standards and the out-breaking throws really seem to float. And while he is prone to wildness and will miss some huge plays, he is generally accurate and just airs it out downfield all game. About the pocket thing, there is a newfangled stat called “pressure-to-sack %” which is just the percentage of pressured dropbacks that turn into sacks. There seems to be a threshold here above which very very few college QBs succeed in the NFL, and it’s 20%. The only ones that bucked this trend were Lamar Jackson, who was barely above 20% at Louisville and that was only due to one bad year, and Joe Burrow, who agrees with his team that sacks are cool. Jayden Daniels is at 24%, which is a major concern for him and it would be even higher if you only looked at Power 5 opponents. All the discourse about the Redskins not protecting Sam Howell? Man, Sam Howell was taking sacks on 25% of pressured dropbacks at UNC. Sam Howell just takes sacks, and nothing will ever stop that. So what is Penix’s mark?
6.9%. This is an absurdly low number, the lowest of like 115 or so NCAA QBs that have data for this since the stat was “invented”. Sean Payton damn near immediately soured on the Russell Wilson experience and specifically said “we could have taken fewer sacks” as a parting shot at Mr. Unlimited. Well, Penix is guns a-blazin’, runs a system well and avoids sacks better than just about anybody. I know this is really, really high for Penix to rise but it just seems like such a great fit.
Why is it really high? Well, he’s 24 and played 6 seasons in college due to multiple serious injuries, so maybe he shouldn’t be absorbing all those hits as he throws. His windup is a bit weird and he doesn’t use the middle of the field as often as you’d hope; a lot of Washington’s offense was throw the ball deep down the sidelines to one of three WRs who will literally all be drafted this year, possibly by the end of Day 2. Long story short, he’s an outlier. Most of the Bailey Zappe types just become, well, Bailey Zappe. Oh, and he didn’t exactly light it up in the championship game against Michigan.
Still, this is a guy who is not just a product of his team like you could argue Jayden Daniels might be. Penix came out of nowhere (alright, alright) from the start of his freshman season at Indiana, where he diced up Ohio State throwing to NPCs such as “Ty Fryfogle”, who is a real person. He was a revelation before the injuries hit, and - while they are definitely concerning - just because he got hurt before doesn’t automatically mean he’ll continue routinely suffering major injuries in the pros. Oh, he also supposedly ran a 4.47 at his Pro Day but the video is hella suspect and this speed doesn’t show up anywhere on his tape. I’m just pretending that didn’t happen because it probably didn’t.
And I mean, he’s got all that “great team leader!” stuff that coaches froth at the mouth over. I think the “drawing play designs on his mirrors and not cleaning them off” stuff makes him a regular Captain Cringe, but man, I bet some of these coaches absolutely love it.
10. NEW YORK JETS – Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
When in Rome, I guess.
All of this insanity is New York’s gain, as a player that GM Aaron Rodgers likely expected to be gone by this pick falls right into his lap. Along with Garrett Wilson, Odunze will be a wonderful decoy while Rodgers continues to only throw the ball to his friends.
I’ve already covered Odunze, so no need to spend any more time on him here. Two Huskies go back to back, which is probably not a phrase that you should search for on the internet.