NFL Week 11

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 4:19 pm

I'm not searching for the damn gambling thread, so may as well start this thread and put these in here.

Lines are cray this week, sons. It's teaser heaven. A lot of sixes and sevens out there.

Indy is only getting 3 going into Tennessee. I think they'll murder Tennessee.

You can also tease AZ over Jax with Houston over Oakland as pick ems, and if that doesn't hit I will blow all of you. And the goat, letting Kranepool off the hook.

More teasers to come as I stop being lazy and actually place my bets and update the ol' blog. But this week, frogs, I think it's gonna rain offshore cash.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 4:20 pm

You can tease the Bills to like +10 over the Jets, too. I think they win straight up. IT'S GONNA RAIN!

Post by **brian** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 4:24 pm

Teasing Pittsburgh up to 8.5/9 at home is a great bet too. Lions may win that game, but they're not blowing them (or anyone these days) out.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 5:19 pm

brian wrote:Teasing Pittsburgh up to 8.5/9 at home is a great bet too. Lions may win that game, but they're not blowing them (or anyone these days) out.

I'd go the other way. If the Steelers win, it's gonna be by like, 3. I can see them getting blown out. They kinda suck a lot of the time.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 5:20 pm

Wow, yeah - they haven't won a game by more than a TD.

Still teasing them over Pit.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 6:24 pm

Not being much of a gambler, I'll ask an ignorant question: what is a teaser? What does it mean to tease a bet?

Post by **brian** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 6:28 pm

sancarlos wrote:Not being much of a gambler, I'll ask an ignorant question: what is a teaser? What does it mean to tease a bet?

Means you can add six points (usually six though there are variations) to either side's point spread for the purposes of a bet.

So for example, assume Detroit is favored by 6 points over Pittsburgh. You can tease Detroit to even (means they only have to win straight up) or Pittsburgh up to +12. The catch is you essentially have to get two games right to equal the payout of one game with a "normal" spread.

Typically, if you're teasing spreads you're betting several games in a parlay where if you hit say 6 out of 6, you win 4 to 1 on your money (and if you get a single one wrong you lose everything). The payouts vary of course in relation to how many games you bet. The more games, the more risk and the higher the payouts.

TheHumanComa · Post by **TheHumanComa** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 11:10 pm

i was hoping the vikings would be a bigger underdog than +13.5. Because I'm a loyal fan that can't bet against his team. i've lost a lot of money because of those stupid vikings lately, but i did enjoy the late 90's and favre's first year as a Viking. Don;t talk to me about his second year...

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Wed Nov 13, 2013 8:46 am

brian wrote:
sancarlos wrote:Not being much of a gambler, I'll ask an ignorant question: what is a teaser? What does it mean to tease a bet?
Means you can add six points (usually six though there are variations) to either side's point spread for the purposes of a bet.

So for example, assume Detroit is favored by 6 points over Pittsburgh. You can tease Detroit to even (means they only have to win straight up) or Pittsburgh up to +12. The catch is you essentially have to get two games right to equal the payout of one game with a "normal" spread.

Typically, if you're teasing spreads you're betting several games in a parlay where if you hit say 6 out of 6, you win 4 to 1 on your money (and if you get a single one wrong you lose everything). The payouts vary of course in relation to how many games you bet. The more games, the more risk and the higher the payouts.

Also if you are interested, sc - here's an article that details why two-team teasers are awesome.

http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/spor ... egas-books" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I prefer 6-point teasers for the odds, but will do 6.5 and 7 to hit key numbers (3, 7, 10, 14, etc) in my spreads.

For example, the one I mentioned above - AZ is -6.5 @ Jax and Houston is -7 home v. Oakland. I am going to tease that one at 6.5 so I get AZ straight-up over the Jags and Houston by a half point over the Raiders. I can't see too many Sundays where that doesn't happen.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Wed Nov 13, 2013 8:47 am

TheHumanComa wrote:i was hoping the vikings would be a bigger underdog than +13.5. Because I'm a loyal fan that can't bet against his team. i've lost a lot of money because of those stupid vikings lately, but i did enjoy the late 90's and favre's first year as a Viking. Don;t talk to me about his second year...

Tease it with a tie to AZ over Jax! You could get a -130 payout and have the Vikes at +21. 6 point teaser gives you a standard -110 return but you get the Vikes at 20, which is a somewhat significant difference.

I don't get the AZ/Jax spread for this reason. AZ is probably 95% odds to win this week, I'd say, if not more. Why not push the spread up so people can't hit cheap teasers?

howard · Post by **howard** » Thu Nov 14, 2013 5:24 pm

Ed Reed agrees to join New York Jets

Pruitt · Post by **Pruitt** » Thu Nov 14, 2013 5:29 pm

howard wrote:Ed Reed agrees to join New York Jets

Very few places Reed could have landed that would make sense. This is one of them.

Booo!!!

Keg · Post by **Keg** » Thu Nov 14, 2013 6:32 pm

I never do teasers, but I do parlay at ML odds pretty much every week.

(The Pick 7 pool is basically a five dollar 7 team ML parlay)

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Thu Nov 14, 2013 7:29 pm

Keg wrote:I never do teasers, but I do parlay at ML odds pretty much every week.

(The Pick 7 pool is basically a five dollar 7 team ML parlay)

It pays more than the parlay probably would.

EDIT: $5 parlay on my teams this week wins $45. Crazy. No wonder Vegas is so shiny, you get better odds with lotto.

howard · Post by **howard** » Thu Nov 14, 2013 9:19 pm

9 to 1 payoff for natural odds (coinflip odds) (I can't remember the proper term) of 128 to 1. That is just silly.

rass · Post by **rass** » Thu Nov 14, 2013 9:36 pm

Headbutting a guy without a helmet is weak.

Pruitt · Post by **Pruitt** » Fri Nov 15, 2013 8:14 am

I would love to see an analysis of a game that Mike Mayock called that listed all of the players that he raved about during the four quarters. Every player is "the best," or "a steal in the 4th round," "underrated," "quickly becoming a standout in the league" etc. etc.

Last night he was even complimenting Brad Nessler on how he said certain words.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Fri Nov 15, 2013 8:32 am

howard wrote:9 to 1 payoff for natural odds (coinflip odds) (I can't remember the proper term) of 128 to 1. That is just silly.

Since you are betting moneylines, it's not quite thaaaat bad. With Vegas vig, the 128:1 odds pay out at:

100*(1.9^9)-100 = 322:1

And the coinflip odds are 512:1. So it's not that bad.

When you incorporate -320 money lines, you are losing so much in vigs that it barely adds to your odds.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Fri Nov 15, 2013 8:36 am

I just parlayed 4 big moneylines (Detroit, AZ, Seattle, and Denver all to win straight up) at 2.2:1 odds. I don't hate it.

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Fri Nov 15, 2013 8:38 am

Denver scares me this week. Peyton's injury, specifically.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Fri Nov 15, 2013 8:44 am

govmentchedda wrote:Denver scares me this week. Peyton's injury, specifically.

You can get the Chiefs at +300-something straight up.

Post by **Sabo** » Fri Nov 15, 2013 9:07 am

Pruitt wrote:I would love to see an analysis of a game that Mike Mayock called that listed all of the players that he raved about during the four quarters. Every player is "the best," or "a steal in the 4th round," "underrated," "quickly becoming a standout in the league" etc. etc.

Last night he was even complimenting Brad Nessler on how he said certain words.

Mayock is approaching Dan Dierdorf levels when it comes to being an annoying broadcaster. Dude does not know when to shut up.

howard · Post by **howard** » Fri Nov 15, 2013 10:18 am

Right, GPJ. Mine was a quick and lazy estimation.

rass · Post by **rass** » Fri Nov 15, 2013 12:51 pm

Perhaps it's because I love the low-hanging fruit, but these Drew Brees fun facts made me laugh.

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Fri Nov 15, 2013 1:04 pm

Gunpowder wrote:
govmentchedda wrote:Denver scares me this week. Peyton's injury, specifically.

You can get the Chiefs at +300-something straight up.

That's tempting, but I don't know if its tempting enough.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Fri Nov 15, 2013 2:14 pm

govmentchedda wrote:
Gunpowder wrote:
govmentchedda wrote:Denver scares me this week. Peyton's injury, specifically.
You can get the Chiefs at +300-something straight up.
That's tempting, but I don't know if its tempting enough.

I'm obviously biased, and I've been wrong many times before... so with that out there... I think a Peyton injury is KC's only chance of winning this week.

cerrano · Post by **cerrano** » Fri Nov 15, 2013 5:04 pm

Post by **brian** » Sat Nov 16, 2013 8:55 pm

Unless something unforeseen happens Matthew Stafford will become the all-time leader in passing yards for the Lions tomorrow. A great story about the curse of Bobby Layne and his connections to Stafford.

(And even more crazy...Layne was traded to Pittsburgh, who Stafford will likely break the record against.)

Fast-forward to 2008, the last year of The (so-called) Curse.

The Lions went 0-16, becoming the first team to achieve that dubious piece of history.

"It kind of puts some emphasis on the idea," Alan said.

In 2009, the first year after the 50-year drought promised by The Curse, the Lions drafted Stafford out of Georgia.

Layne and Stafford played football at the very same high school in Dallas, Highland Park High School. And, incredibly, lived on the same street. Stafford's modest brick ranch on Purdue Avenue in the University Park section is six and one-half blocks east of the home Layne grew up in with his aunt and uncle.

rass · Post by **rass** » Sun Nov 17, 2013 12:21 pm

No Woodley or Keisel for the Steelers today. Blech.

rass · Post by **rass** » Sun Nov 17, 2013 1:13 pm

Holy shit a ball hit Calvin Johnson in the hands and he didn't catch it!

Not much snark intended!

rass · Post by **rass** » Sun Nov 17, 2013 2:06 pm

Wish he'd dropped that one.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Sun Nov 17, 2013 2:17 pm

A slightly damp Stacey Dales reporting from Soldier Field is kinda hot.

rass · Post by **rass** » Sun Nov 17, 2013 2:20 pm

Or that one.

That drive was what I was expecting from the beginning.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Sun Nov 17, 2013 2:20 pm

Wow have the falcons ever given up on their coach

Post by **brian** » Sun Nov 17, 2013 2:58 pm

Lions and Steelers have combined for almost 600 passing yards in the first half in a rainstorm. Football.

Post by **brian** » Sun Nov 17, 2013 3:01 pm

As bad as the Lions have sucked it's a nice consolation to have watched Barry Sanders and Calvin Johnson in their primes.

Post by **brian** » Sun Nov 17, 2013 3:05 pm

Also Stafford had 267 passing yards...in the 2nd quarter.

howard · Post by **howard** » Sun Nov 17, 2013 3:12 pm

I think my next throwback is gonna be a #20 in Honolulu Blue. Mostly for the really old guy, who looks like he is still at his playing weight:

Post by **brian** » Sun Nov 17, 2013 3:41 pm

Yup. Lem Barney was a Hall of Famer on and off the field.

howard · Post by **howard** » Sun Nov 17, 2013 4:30 pm

We frequently joke about somebody's head exploding. It may literally happen to Kubiak.