Connor McDavid and the NHL Draft Lottery

bapo! · Post by **bapo!** » Wed Apr 15, 2015 10:50 am

This was my first attempt at a Connor McDavid thread, from March 2012. Back then, I was a long-suffering Erie Otters fan who was hopeful that some young kid might live up to the hype and turn the franchise around. He did, and he did. They swept London last night, and they're in the Conference Finals for the second year in a row.

(That doesn't mean that the Otters aren't still an embarrassment. They filed for bankruptcy last week, and they've been in court with the Edmonton Oilers over an unpaid loan for a few years now. The team is going to be sold this summer, but there's not as much fear of them moving as there used to be. Another OHL team is moving to Hamilton next year, so that removes one possibility, at least. Anway...)

I've spent a lot of time in Erie. It's a very nondescript, nothing kind of town. But I'm comfortable there. I have my reasons for liking it, but there's nothing to recommend it to anybody else. So it's been strange to see 'Erie' in print so many times the past three years. The fact that the most-hyped prospect since Sidney Crosby lived and played in effing Erie, PA, for three years is mind-boggling to me. There's a weird kind of, I dunno, secondary pride or something at play here.

As I've said in other hockey threads, I followed the bottom of the NHL standings closely this season. The lottery builds uncertainty into the equation, so it all comes down to probabilities now. I'm obviously rooting for Buffalo to get him. I'm not alone here.

Beyond that, I don't know if there's a team that I most certainly do not want him to play for. Carolina (8.5% chance of winning) or Florida (3%), maybe, because they're so bland. Toronto (9.5%) would be amazing. I could talk myself into any of these teams; I'm going to end up watching them anyway.

The draft is on Saturday night. It will be televised before the Pens/Rangers game on NBC. Buckle up.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Wed Apr 15, 2015 10:53 am

He's going to be a San Jose Shark. Ask Max. He knows...

travzilla · Post by **travzilla** » Wed Apr 15, 2015 12:48 pm

Being a Hockey Gods theist, I'll say Columbus.

Anyone but Edmonton.

bapo! · Post by **bapo!** » Wed Apr 15, 2015 1:20 pm

travzilla wrote:Being a Hockey Gods theist, I'll say Columbus.

6% chance of winning. And yeah, they are due for some hockey karma.

Pros: They play 2.5 hours from Pittsburgh. He would instantly make an anonymous team a must-watch. Sergei Bobrovsky, Ryan Johanson, Ryan Murray, and Boone Jenner. (Oliver Bjorkstrand, Kerby Rychel, and Oscar Dansk in the system.)

Cons: Brandon Dubinsky.

My love/hate relationship with Edmonton is well-documented. I'm ready to move on.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Apr 15, 2015 2:11 pm

bapo! wrote:Cons: Brandon Dubinsky.

We are so fucking done.

bapo! · Post by **bapo!** » Wed Apr 15, 2015 2:38 pm

mister d wrote:
bapo! wrote:Cons: Brandon Dubinsky.
We are so fucking done.

He was mean to Crosby in the playoffs last year.

He's one of those players, like Brad Marchand, whom I would probably like a lot more if he played on my team. I'm fickle. I eventually came around on Matt Cooke and Steve Downie.

Is he going to be back with Columbus next year? If so, he has a 6% chance of changing my opinion of him.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Apr 15, 2015 2:44 pm

Long term deal either last season or offseason. He'll be there for a while unless I get named Sather's replacement.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Wed Apr 15, 2015 5:05 pm

You all know he's going to Toronto.

Post by **brian** » Wed Apr 15, 2015 5:16 pm

degenerasian wrote:You all know he's going to Toronto.

Can't wait for the 20 years of discussions and conspiracy theories of how Bettman rigged the lottery after that happens.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Wed Apr 15, 2015 6:50 pm

brian wrote:
degenerasian wrote:You all know he's going to Toronto.
Can't wait for the 20 years of discussions and conspiracy theories of how Bettman rigged the lottery after that happens.

Yep. Patrick Ewing to the Knicks redux.

bapo! · Post by **bapo!** » Wed Apr 15, 2015 11:50 pm

Re: The Toronto talk. The league is afraid of this, apparently. It's already announced that there will be video evidence of the hot, wet ping-pong-ball action. I guess they learned their lesson after the Crosby lottery. (And then took another decade to do anything about it.)

Okay, I'm watching playoff hockey, but it's tape-delayed, so I can't click around the Internets. So I'll just amuse myself by listing the pros/cons of the lottery teams.

Buffalo.
The obvious choice. Max can chime in if he wants, but there's really no need to. We all want the Sabres to win, right?

Glendale/Vegas/Flin-Flon.
Pros: Max Domi and Anthony Duclair are in the system.

Cons: The ownership mess and constant threat of relocation. They've become the live-in boyfriend who stays up late playing video games but claims he's too tired for sex, then drinks all of your booze while you're at work.

Edmonton.
Pros: I still heart Taylor Hall.

Cons: It's been five years. Get your shit together, guys.

Toronto.
Pros: Center of the hockey world. McDavid will be a star no matter where he plays, but the hype would be off the charts if he plays for his hometown team.

Cons: If he doesn't win the Cup by the time he turns 21, in addition to developing alternative fuel sources and single-handedly defeating ISIS, all of Ontario will hate him. Or, at least, some jabroni will throw his jersey onto the ice.

Carolina.
Pros: Staals, Staals everywhere.

Cons: The image of Bill Cowher turning that crank during the playoffs that won't leave my head.

New Jersey.
Pros: Um, I like Adam Henrique.

Cons: New Jersey is still boring, aren't they?

Philly.
Pros: The Penguins' biggest rival. Penguins fans will become even more irrational six times/year. This would amuse me.

Cons: Bobby Clarke.

Columbus.
Listed above.

San Jose.
Pros: sancarlos.

Cons: They're on the west coast, so I can't watch them very often. Seriously, that's the only drawback. I would love to see the Sharks get him.

Colorado.
Pros: Some good young talent on that team already.

Cons: Aren't a couple of big-time anti-gay groups based in Colorado Springs? I don't want a hockey team to give those people joy.

Florida.
Pros: ???

Cons: G-d, please no.

Dallas.
Pros: This team is already pretty good, and they have Tyler Seguin.

Cons: Despite Seguin, they're still kind of dull.

Los Angeles of Los Angeles.
Pros: A very good team coming off a bad season. They'll be back in the playoffs next year, and McDavid won't have to be everything for them.

Cons: Um, traffic? High cost of living?

Boston.
Pros: Max Webster's head might asplode.

Cons: None that I can think of.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Thu Apr 16, 2015 7:22 am

The pros of Florida is they already have one of the best young cores, right? The cons are still correct.

Also, Anthony Duclair is a Rangers prospect, not a Coyotes prospect. Not sure how you made that mistake. He is in the Rangers system and will be a Ranger for a very long time. He is a Ranger.

rass · Post by **rass** » Thu Apr 16, 2015 7:29 am

You'd think that if Bettman's NHL was going to fix the lottery, it would be for one of his pet sun belt teams and not a Canadian franchise.

I think I'd sort of like to see Jersey win this thing. If he ends up being as good as expected, it would be neat if he was playing a quick train ride away.

Post by **brian** » Thu Apr 16, 2015 7:46 am

rass wrote:You'd think that if Bettman's NHL was going to fix the lottery, it would be for one of his pet sun belt teams and not a Canadian franchise.

I think I'd sort of like to see Jersey win this thing. If he ends up being as good as expected, it would be neat if he was playing a quick train ride away.

The "genius" and inscrutableness of Bettman is that either argument could be made.

bapo! · Post by **bapo!** » Thu Apr 16, 2015 8:27 am

mister d wrote:The pros of Florida is they already have one of the best young cores, right? The cons are still correct.

Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Erik Gudbranson, and Aaron Ekblad. That's huge talent. And Pittsburgh's own Vincent Trochek. Not to mention some prospect named Jagr. I actually like this team a lot, but they're about as anonymous as it gets.

Of course, they'll get more media exposure if/when McDavid shows up, but I'm afraid that he'll just fall into the ocean and disappear down there. I'm remembering when I was a kid, and how disheartening it was when my favorite college basketball players would get drafted by Sacramento or the LA Clippers, and I knew that I would never see them again and that they would be out of the league in four years.

And D, you're going to have to come to terms with Duclair's leaving eventually. If you love something, set it free.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Thu Apr 16, 2015 8:51 am

You're forgetting my favorite one, Nick Bjugstad. He's a horrific "what if" when we picked McIlrath, if only because Taresenko seems too easy of a choice.

MaxWebster · Post by **MaxWebster** » Thu Apr 16, 2015 9:24 pm

no cons listed on the Buffalo entry.

i just love you bapo!

also i can't comment any more on this topic because i've only been thinking about it for nearly 3 years. good lord Saturday can't come and go quickly enough.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Sat Apr 18, 2015 6:22 pm

someone hold max

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Sat Apr 18, 2015 7:05 pm

Anyone else feel bad for Eichel? McDavid still has a chance right now, Eichel has been fucked for a few weeks.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Sat Apr 18, 2015 7:14 pm

nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Sat Apr 18, 2015 7:17 pm

Edmonton???

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Sat Apr 18, 2015 7:19 pm

Haha "Anything can happen at draft day" Sorry Conner, as much as you can hope, you're unfortunately going to Edmonton.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Sat Apr 18, 2015 7:19 pm

Maybe they've learned from the Yakupov pick and will go with the best defenseman available.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Sat Apr 18, 2015 7:55 pm

bapo! wrote:Pros: They play 2.5 hours from Pittsburgh.

Maybe if Jayson Werth is driving.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Sat Apr 18, 2015 7:59 pm

Aivis Kalnins ‏@LWOSShakcc
McDavid has KHL option -was drafted in 2nd round by Zagreb Medvescak

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Sat Apr 18, 2015 8:09 pm

"I demand to go to Buffalo!!!"

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Sat Apr 18, 2015 8:56 pm

Zagreb is a beautiful city. Lots of hot girls.

Rush2112 · Post by **Rush2112** » Sat Apr 18, 2015 9:08 pm

NHL hoping to bring back the 80s with The Oil winning 6-5 every game.

Now if they could get a defense.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Mon Apr 20, 2015 10:29 am

Did this NHL screw up their own lottery?

Ryan · Post by **Ryan** » Mon Apr 20, 2015 10:51 am

Holy shit. If you didn't watch the lottery, please watch the video in that post. That's what the NBA lottery looked like in 1987. Jesus.

By the way, it looks like the teams still alive going into the last ball were:

TOR (X4)
BUF (X3)
EDM (X2)
CAR
CBJ

bapo! · Post by **bapo!** » Mon Apr 20, 2015 6:00 pm

Ryan wrote:Holy shit. If you didn't watch the lottery, please watch the video in that post. That's what the NBA lottery looked like in 1987. Jesus.

Þ To be clear, that video isn't what actually aired on television; it was the 'See, everything is above-board' transparency video that was put on-line. Still, yeah, it's not exactly polished.

But this is why I love the NHL. If this were the NBA, even if it were an Internet-only video, there would be lighting and graphics, maybe some music, maybe some sense of professionalism. But that's not the NHL's concern.

Þ I've invested five years in the Oilers as my second-favorite team, so at least I won't have to switch allegiances now. I was ready to move on, but this is okay. Ryan Lambert's piece on Yahoo got me fired up a little bit. But part of me is thinking about my sophomore year in college, how I wasted an entire year on a crazy girlfriend who I fought with all of the time even tho I knew I deserved better. But we were artists!

Post by **brian** » Mon Apr 20, 2015 6:42 pm

I know McDavid is the next Crosby and everything, but if the Sabres reached out with an insane package to swap #1 for #2 you'd have to at least listen, right? Considering you can get Eichel anyway? If it were the NBA maybe not so much or the NFL and it were the next Luck or Manning maybe not so much, but you have so many needs on a hockey team...Just thinking out loud.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Mon Apr 20, 2015 6:49 pm

Too bad you already traded Myers and Enroth. What the Oilers need.

How about an Arizona package?

McDavid for the 3rd pick (Hanifan), EkmanLarson, Smith and a 2016 1st rounder.

EdRomero · Post by **EdRomero** » Mon Apr 20, 2015 7:01 pm

I loved that video -- Bettman showing today's newspaper like it was a ransom video, Bettman's video directing, the ping pong ball kid looking directly at the camera each time he put a ball in (have they figured out which NHL executive is the father of this kid?), and ending with the cameraman's fuck you to Bettman's instructions to turn off the cam as he films some artistic closeups of ping pong balls to close the film.

travzilla · Post by **travzilla** » Tue Apr 21, 2015 12:24 pm

degenerasian wrote:Too bad you already traded Myers and Enroth. What the Oilers need.

How about an Arizona package?

McDavid for the 3rd pick (Hanifan), EkmanLarson, Smith and a 2016 1st rounder.

Don't think there's any chance any of the top 4 picks get moved. Even in regular years there's always talk about it and never happens. No way Buffalo or Edmonton trade down.

bapo! · Post by **bapo!** » Tue Apr 21, 2015 12:49 pm

Buffalo fans need closure. It's not fair for us to talk of trade scenarios. Let's move on. Besides, Eichel is going to be good.

Dylan Strome could end up in Toronto, who pick fourth. I would welcome this.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Apr 21, 2015 12:52 pm

brian wrote:I know McDavid is the next Crosby and everything, but if the Sabres reached out with an insane package to swap #1 for #2 you'd have to at least listen, right? Considering you can get Eichel anyway? If it were the NBA maybe not so much or the NFL and it were the next Luck or Manning maybe not so much, but you have so many needs on a hockey team...Just thinking out loud.

You can't. In hockey, more than any other sport it seems, the top prospects pan out. Out of the top 10 forwards in the NHL, atleast 5 were #1 overall picks and a couple more were in the top 3.

Post by **brian** » Tue Apr 21, 2015 1:10 pm

mister d wrote:
brian wrote:I know McDavid is the next Crosby and everything, but if the Sabres reached out with an insane package to swap #1 for #2 you'd have to at least listen, right? Considering you can get Eichel anyway? If it were the NBA maybe not so much or the NFL and it were the next Luck or Manning maybe not so much, but you have so many needs on a hockey team...Just thinking out loud.
You can't. In hockey, more than any other sport it seems, the top prospects pan out. Out of the top 10 forwards in the NHL, atleast 5 were #1 overall picks and a couple more were in the top 3.

Again, I'm just playing devil's advocate, but even if you concede that McDavid really is going to be the next Crosby, assume that Eichel is the next Patrick Kane (to throw out a more or less random comp). If the Sabres give up a king's ransom for the pick, isn't it potentially worth it to pick up a bunch more pieces and maybe even a first next year?

(Granting that it's a silly exercise, because most GMs/executives are so hardwired into making the "safe" decision which McDavid most certainly is. No one's going to criticize you for taking a once in a generation talent. Just seems like it's silly to not at least listen to offers. One thing I would say is that I would absolutely NOT entertain offers from anyone other than Buffalo probably though.)

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Apr 22, 2015 8:40 am

I think if there were no McDavid and Eichel were the clear, far and away #1, there'd be a really good argument to trade out of the best player to get the better fit (Hanifin) and additional assets. But you just can't risk missing the next Gretzky / Crosby, even if its not a sure thing and even if you could get a lot with Eichel to entice you. It would actually be a really interesting debate if you flipped the teams over, where Edmonton was trying to trade into the #1, given all the young talent they have on the roster. And I still don't think Buffalo, even looking at the good ol' American kid plus Hall plus Nurse or whatever, could do it. Maybe somewhat because of safety, but more because this is a once in a franchise opportunity.

(And using Kane as the example, do you think he's the type who could carry a team or do you think he's benefited from the rest of the roster? Not that Crosby hasn't done well to have Malkin there, but he seems far more able to carry a team on his back than Kane ever has.)

MaxWebster · Post by **MaxWebster** » Wed Apr 22, 2015 11:25 am

as a general rule a center is almost a billion times more likely to "carry" a team than a wing.

math.

you don't trade either of the top 2 this year. just. no.